Russia is in deep trouble. Vladimir Putin administration is in deep shit. And the country is in panic mode, judging by a surprise announcement just before 1:00 a.m. in Moscow. The Russian central bank unexpectedly raises its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%, effective today. The move was the largest single increase since 1998, when Russian rates soared past 100% and the government defaulted on debt.
The Russian currency – Ruble – was already as worthless as toilet papers when it was traded as high as 66.59 Ruble to a U.S. dollar. After the interest rate hike announcement, the Ruble immediately strengthen but subsequently weaken again to above 61.5 Ruble to a U.S. dollar. So far this year, Russia has spent at least US$80 billion (£51 billion; RM280 billion) of its foreign-exchange reserves in an unsuccessful attempt to prop up the Ruble.
When you mention 1997/1998 and high interest rate, the 17-year-old Asia Financial Crisis came to mind. And one cannot ignore the mighty Malaysia, the only country in Southeast Asia which ignored assistance from IMF (International Monetary Fund). Actually, the present Russian economic meltdown has many similarities to Malaysian’s back in 1997. For a start, Malaysia was ruled by dictator Mahathir Mohamad, the same way Vladimir Putin rules Russia today.
Interestingly, when Malaysian Ringgit was depreciating like having “diarrhea”, genius Mahathir conveniently put all the blames on currency speculators. Guess what, that was precisely what Putin did early this month when he threatened to crack down on speculators against the Ruble. The only difference is this: while Putin claimed to know those scumbag speculators but didn’t name them, Mahathir pointed his finger squarely at George Soros.
Of course, all of us know that the same speculators who have been causing trouble to Ruble are none other than Russian’s own banks, including its central bank (*grin*). Amusingly, Mahathir administration has also utilized billions of dollars to prop up the Ringgit, without much success. Let’s see: Putin is blaming economic sanction, currency speculators and falling oil prices on foreign conspiracy. Likewise, Mahathir blamed capital outflows, currency speculators, falling stock market on foreign conspiracy too.
While Putin blames America, Mahathir blamed America-backed-Jews. During the height of the 1997/1998 Asia Financial Crisis, Mahathir raised interest rate to as high as 18%, similar to what Putin did today (17%). In 1997, Malaysian Ringgit plunged from RM2.4 to as low as RM4.9 to a U.S. dollar – a whopping 100% depreciation. This year alone, Russian Ruble plunged from 33 Ruble to 66 Ruble to a U.S. dollar, also a whopping 100% depreciation.
In 1997, Mahathir’s cronies and even his own sons were heavily affected due to excessive U.S. dollars borrowing. Today, Putin and his cronies are also in the same situation due to external borrowings. While Mahathir had milked tens of billions of dollars from national petroleum company Petronas to rescue his sons and cronies, Putin is expected to plunder hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue his own circles, due to Russia’s huge economic size.
So, what should be Putin’s counter strategies in order to rescue his administration? First, Putin should invite Mahathir to Kremlin, before praising him to the sky. Mahathir loves to be polished. He would probably suggest that he needs his minion, former Finance Minister and billionaire Daim Zainuddin. This combo Mahathir-Daim would probably suggest to Putin to stop wasting money propping up local currency Ruble – it won’t work.
Mahathir knows very well than anybody else that bitching, whining and crying about currency speculators will not help the local currency. So, the best way to rescue Ruble is to copy what Mahathir had done – fix the Ruble exchange rate to a U.S. dollar. For example, Putin can pluck a number from the sky and fix 55 Ruble to a USD, for example. Essentially, Putin must ban off-shore market trading of the Ruble and gave depositors a grace period to repatriate their off-shore Ruble deposits back to Russia.
Russian residents can be allowed to make payment to foreign countries or make investments of up to the equivalent of only Ruble 100,000; above which they have to obtain prior approval from Putin himself (*grin). And since Russia is a world powerhouse, the country can afford to default all its external debt, especially to the United States. To hell with the America. What can pussy Obama do if Putin chooses not to pay?
One has to remember Putin had thrown in a nuclear-threat to America and European Union during the Crimea crisis. If Malaysia was as powerful as Russia today militarily, Mahathir wouldn’t care about his son’s billions of dollars in debt accumulated during the 1997 crisis. Mahathir would probably threaten anybody who dares to come collect his cronies’ debt with nuclear weapon (*tongue-in-cheek*).
Both Putin and Mahathir have a common enemy – the United States. Literally, all the measures taken by Mahathir in combating the 1997 recession are applicable to Russia today. Perhaps Putin could realize another of Mahathir’s silly propositions – to conduct all transactions in gold and not U.S. dollar. During the 1997 crisis, Mahathir also went to stage and urged and begged Malaysian citizens to donate their jewelleries to help the country.
Sure, the stunt didn’t work back then because as a democratic country, Mahathir couldn’t simply put a gun on Malaysians’ head and forced them for their valuables. But Russia is a communist country so Putin can easily instructs his military to bully, brutalise and take away any valuables from 140 million Russians, in the name of rescuing “Mother Russia”. There’s only one person on planet Earth who can rescue Russia. That person is Mahathir (*grin*).
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December 16th, 2014 by financetwitter
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Comments
Shhh, don’t wake the genius PM … We need a great recession together with GST to wake up those idiots in the village …
And let’s see if Russia will take the bait by copy what Mahathir has done in 1997 …
Russia is not so bad off. They could use their reserves to buy back the fallen Rubble. Remember what the Hong Kong government did back in 1997? The “shorter” had to run with tail between their legs.
Russia also raise their interest rate to 17%; bad for business but at least stem the mad slide. Let’s us wait for the dust to settle and see if it creates a big dent in the Russian’s purse. Putin is a crafty man and I believe before the year end he would checkmate the West.
Seriously did some clown get paid $2 to write this crap?
Russia is hardly isolated – if anything it’s only going to accelerate a shift of those countries in Asia, Latin America and the African continent to take sides in a multi-polar world. So far Latin America is not exactly gravitating towards North America…nor is Africa. In Asia, American trade is now third rank. It stands at less than one third of China. Sorry but money talks and BS walks… So the yanks can go take a hike!
I noticed that even US occupied South Korea did not sanction Russia, in fact they increased trade relations and embark on strategic energy and transport projects. South Korea has joined the Chinese led Asia Dev Bank, and is now attending China’s WW2 Victory parade in a snub to both Japan and the US. All in the same year that Americas ambassador to South Korea got a nice face slashing with a knife in a public restaurant! Feel the love!
I am quite impressed that Malaysia and Russia both avoid the IMF medicine. Neighbors like Indonesia, & India would all be quite wealthy today had it not been for Colonial powers stealing their resources, and having debt jammed down their throats. Its finally time for the Asian Century.
Perhaps should recommend our bright PM and Finance Minister to get ready Dr. M’s solution. Guess he will need to apply it real soon to save MYR. Our backyard ain’t that rosy either. Too bad, don’t think we can get away with the same trick this round.