On Friday (April 12), President Biden expressed his anticipation of an Iranian attack on Israel and rushed warships, including aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and destroyers USS Carney and USS Arleigh Burke to protect Israel and American forces in the region. With “expectation” that the attack would come “sooner rather than later”, the Commander-in-Chief has one word for Iran – “Don’t”.
An Iranian strike on Israel will force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to retaliate with massive forces that could potentially trigger World War 3, leading to oil prices skyrocketing above US$100 a barrel and trigger a new wave of inflation. And you can bet your last dollar that it will claim many times higher than the 33,000 lives in Gaza in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War.
Just think about it. Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel, which killed around 1,200 people, has already seen relentless bombings that killed close to 30 times more people in Gaza. The Jews are ruthless, and Iranian Mullahs knew it. However, Tehran can’t afford not to retaliate after humiliated in an Israeli drone strike in the compound of Iranian Embassy in Syria.
The attack on the Embassy of Iran, which killed three Iranian generals, was equivalent to an attack on Iranian’s own soil. Essentially, it was a declaration of war on Tehran. However, Israeli officials said the building was an outpost of the Revolutionary Guards, making it a legitimate military target. On the other hand, Iran will look weak and lose face if it does not strike back as promised.
But it’s a tricky business how Iran decides to avenge the killing of General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top commander of the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC). Zahedi’s deputy commander, Gen Haji Rahimi, along with Brig Gen Hossein Amirollah, the chief of general staff of the Quds force in Syria and Lebanon, was also killed.
It was the most significant assassination since Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian major general and the commander of the Quds Force, was killed by a U.S. drone strike on January 3, 2020 near the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq. The latest assassination of the Iranian top commanders suggests that Israel has started to cut off “the head of the snake”, forcing Iran’s hands.
By flattening the consulate building – supposedly untouchable as it was considered Iranian sovereign soil – the same way the Israeli ferociously reduced every single building in Gaza Strip to rubble hunting for Hamas terrorists, Tel Aviv was sending a message to Tehran and all its enemies that there isn’t any red line that cannot be crossed when Israel is provoked or attacked.
While Israel has not declared responsibility for the attack, the precision attack which did not harm the embassy itself speaks volumes about the weaponry technology it possessed. In fact, it did not even care to execute the surgical strike at night, sending fighter jets to bomb the building in daylight instead – clearly a deliberate attempt to display its military prowess.
Hence, Iran should be absolutely concerned that Israel appeared to have had high-quality intelligence that the Iranian senior leaders were all “sitting ducks” in the consulate before pulling the trigger. This means Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, can be targeted too if Israel wanted to. It also means Israel has done all the calculations before striking the Iranian Embassy.
There were reports that senior Pentagon was frustrated that Israel did not warn the U.S. government ahead of the Damascus strike. If it’s true, it means the Israeli government did not trust Biden administration, possibly fearing that Washington might quietly inform Tehran in advance. This also means Israel is even more dangerous than Iran thought as the U.S. has lost control of its ally.
Basically, Iran has three decisions to make. First, should it retaliate against Israel or the United States or both? Second, if it decides to focus solely on Israel, should it send missiles directly from Iran to strike Israel or use proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon? Third, what’s the end game or the exit plan? Any reckless decision without an exit plan could see the end of Iranian regime, or the beginning or a global war.
It was not rocket science when Tel Aviv decided to attack the Iranian Embassy. It calls Tehran’s bluff, betting that it would not recklessly declare a “direct war” at Israel, which would force military superpower United States to join and defend its ally. The calculation was based on the past reactions, where Iran did not retaliate despite Israel’s multiple attacks on its military targets.
If the assassination four years ago by the U.S. of Qasem Soleimani is any indicator, Tehran will try to balance between domestic pressure to strike quickly and hard on Israel against U.S. warnings. Back then, Iran launched a missile attack against an American base in Iraq, but only after warning Washington of the attack in advance. The Mullahs just wanted to save face without going to a full-blown war.
After 7 months of bombing and flattening Gaza to avenge Hamas terror attacks, Israel is bringing the war to the Iranian door step. Not only the Jewish state is trying to drag the U.S. into the war, but is also pressuring Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make mistakes by attacking Israel directly. Iran must be made to pay the price for its proxy war in the Middle East.
Already, some Iranians have begun mocking the military and the leadership of Ali Khamenei for pussyfooting despite numerous threats and warnings to avenge the Israeli strike in Syria. Provoking the government, graffiti on a wall in Tehran says – “Israel, they don’t have the balls to seek revenge. Hit them harder next time, Israel, they have wet their pants”.
The public understanding was that Israel could be defeated by sending volleys of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to overwhelm the Iron Dome, the same way Hamas sent 5,000 missiles to breach the Israeli mobile all-weather air defence system. However, Tel Aviv most likely have found the solution to the issue since the October 7 attacks.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, after having a meeting with Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, said on Friday (April 12) – “We are prepared to defend ourselves on the ground and in the air, in close cooperation with our partners, and we will know how to respond.” What the U.S. fears isn’t Iran’s retaliation, but the Israeli’s response over Iranian’s retaliation.
All hell will break loose if Israel strikes deep inside Iran in response to any retaliation, which could spark a regional conflict and draw in the U.S. and other allies. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had called Gallant to reassure him of Washington’s commitment to defend its closest ally – “Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against Iranian attacks, which Tehran has publicly threatened.”
One plan is for Iran to attack Israel through proxies in Syria and Iraq. Another option is to hit Israeli embassies located in the Middle East – probably with a warning in advance to avoid casualties that could provoke the Jews state. Other plan includes attacking the Golan Heights, a disputed territory annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981. Whatever the plan, Iran cannot risk hitting Israel directly.
Unlike Joe Biden’s promise of “ironclad” American support to defend Israel, Iran does not enjoy the same support from either Russia or China. Given a chance, Israel will gladly target Iran’s nuclear facilities and other critical infrastructure, pre-emptively stopping its bitter enemy from becoming a nuclear power. This could be part of its calculations when it strikes the Iranian Embassy on the April Fool day.
Other Articles That May Interest You …
- 3 “Sitting Ducks” Top Generals Assassinated In Iranian Embassy – Israel’s Chess Play To Drag Iran & The U.S. Into The War
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April 14th, 2024 by financetwitter
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