If there’s one nation you don’t fool around, it’s Israel. Surrounded by hostile enemies who are determined to destroy it, the country has armed itself to become one of the strongest military powers in the Middle East, partly thanks to more than US$3.8 billion of military aid a year from the US. And here’s why the Israelis are deadly – they always make good on their promise to retaliate for any attack on Israelis or Jews around the world.

 

On Monday (April 1), Iran finally paid the price for its proxy war in the Middle East when a missile strike launched by Israel destroyed a diplomatic building in the compound of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing at least 11 people. Crucially, it killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top commander of the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC).

 

His deputy commander – Gen Haji Rahimi – along with Brig Gen Hossein Amirollah, the chief of general staff of the Quds force in Syria and Lebanon, was also killed. Arguably, it was the most significant assassination since Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian major general and the commander of the Quds Force, was killed by a U.S. drone strike on January 3, 2020 near the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq.

The Israelis’ attack was not only ruthless as it killed three generals and four officers of the elite Quds Force, but was also bold because the attack on the Embassy of Iran would be equivalent to an attack on Iranian’s own soil. Essentially, it was a declaration of war on Tehran. However, Israeli officials said the building was an outpost of the Revolutionary Guards, making it a legitimate military target.

 

As a key figure in Iran’s military hierarchy, Zahedi managed Iranian paramilitary operations in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. More importantly, he was responsible for the smuggling of Iranian-made missiles to Hezbollah. Not only Zahedi was the boss of Iranian proxy Hezbollah, he also gave orders to Syria’s Assad regime. In short, he was in charge of Tehran’s network of terrorists throughout the region.

 

Since Hamas’ October 7 terror attacks on the Jews, Hezbollah has fired more than 3,500 rockets on Israel, thanks to 63-year-old Zahedi. The latest assassination of the Iranian top commanders suggests that Israel has started to cut off “the head of the snake”. But this is not the first time it had targeted Iranian military officials. Last December, its missile strike killed Sayed Reza Musawi, the IGRC head of logistics.

By flattening the consulate building – supposedly untouchable as it was considered Iranian sovereign soil – the same way the Israeli ferociously reduced every single building in Gaza Strip to rubble hunting for Hamas terrorists, Tel Aviv is sending a message to Tehran and all its enemies that there isn’t any red line that cannot be crossed when Israel is provoked or attacked.

 

While Israel has not declared responsibility for the attack, which is in line with its standard operating procedure, the precision attack which did not harm the embassy itself speaks volumes about the weaponry technology it possessed. In fact, it did not even care to execute the surgical strike at night, sending F16 jets to bomb the building in daylight instead – clearly a deliberate attempt to display its prowess.

 

Iran should be absolutely concerned that Israel appeared to have had high-quality intelligence that the Iranian senior leaders were all “sitting ducks” in the consulate before pulling the trigger. This means Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, can be targeted too if Israel wanted to. It also means Israel knew about the Oct 7 attacks before it happened, but chose to allow it for domestic and geopolitical reasons.

Essentially, the Hamas terrorist attack, which killed some 1,200 people, has not only united Israeli society behind scandal-plagued Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but has also provided an excuse for Israel to enter Gaza to eliminate Hamas terror group. The latest bombing of Iranian diplomatic facility seems to be part of chess play to drag Iran and the U.S. into a much bigger war – potentially World War 3.

 

Like it or not, the more the world condemns Israel, the more reasons Israel has to escalate its current war with Hamas. It’s not rocket science that Commander-in-Chief Joe Biden has very little influence over Israel, who is betting that Donald Trump would return to the Oval Office. Even if Trump fails in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Washington won’t allow Israel to be attacked by Iran.

 

Even though the U.S. told Iran that it “had no involvement” or advance knowledge of an Israeli military strike on the diplomatic compound in Syria, it’s laughable to think that the American intelligence did not know about it. Get real, Israel had gotten the green light before the assassination. The White House just didn’t want to get its hand dirty before the upcoming election, which could affect Biden’s chances.

Likewise, Iran Mullahs are now caught in a dilemma, despite chest-thumping and threats to retaliate against Israel. Failure to respond could signal weakness to Israel, but retaliation risks a harsher U.S. or Israeli action. Obviously, Tel Aviv is calling Tehran’s bluff, betting that it would not recklessly declare a “direct war” at Israel, which would force military superpower United States to join and defend its ally.

 

In the past, Iran did not retaliate despite Israel’s multiple attacks on its military targets. As a matter of fact, this is not the first time Iran’s sovereignty has been breached. In January 2023, Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad launched a drone attack on an Iranian military facility that caused a large explosion in the centre of the city of Isfahan – a major centre of missile production, research and development.

 

In June 2021, Israeli sent “kamikaze quadcopters” to one of Iran’s main manufacturing centres for centrifuges, which purify uranium at the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow and Natanz. In May 2022, six quadcopters exploded in Kermanshah, Iran’s main manufacturing and storage plant for military drones. In May 2022, a drone strike hit an Iranian military site outside Tehran that developed missile, nuclear and drone technology.

If the assassination four years ago by the U.S. of Qasem Soleimani is any indicator, the Iranian’s retaliation would be mild, not to mention it won’t be immediate. Back then, Iran launched a missile attack against an American base in Iraq, but only after warning Washington of the attack in advance. The Mullahs just wanted to save face without going to war.

 

Crucially, the stunning attack on Iranian Embassy was designed to assure Saudi Arabia that the kingdom can still count on Israel to counter its rival Iran in the region. The Israel-Hamas War started partly because Iran wanted to interrupt the Saudi-Israel normalization. Already, Israel has shown that it can fight a multi-front war – against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syrian regime and Palestinian Islamic Jihadist in the West Bank.

 

From the beginning, Iran understood that unlike the U.S., Israel doesn’t bluff. Between 2010 and 2012, four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated, including head of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was killed by Israeli intelligence with a remote-controlled machine gun while he was travelling in a car outside Tehran. Even Soleimani was assassinated with the help of Mossad.

Besides being one of the best-equipped armies in the world, Israel is a nuclear power beast. Iran knew it would be foolish to directly retaliate against the Jewish nation as it would give Israel the excuse to take the war directly to Iran’s doorstep – the same way Hamas learned its lesson the hard way. An open confrontation with Israel is a death wish which not even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants.

 

More importantly, the Ayahtollahs aren’t invincible as they would like the world to think. The previous widespread protests across Iran following the killing of 22-year-old Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in 2022 have shown the depth of regime’s unpopularity. Any direct war with Israel could spark political repercussions as Iranians may rise to oppose the incompetent and corrupt regime.

 

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April 3rd, 2024 by financetwitter

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