French president François Hollande has declared the Paris attacks by Daesh (ISIS, ISIL, IS) an “act of war”. He wants to change the law to revoke terrorists of their French citizenship and ban them from entering the country. Ten French jets have already been sent to drop 20 bombs on ISIS’ capital Raqqa in Syria.
Mr Hollande, in his attempt to show fellow French that he’s not a lame duck like President Obama, is also seeking parliamentary approval to extend the 12 days limit on state of emergency to another 3-month because the country is now “at war” with ISIS. He vows to destroy the barbarian ISIS. But can France really terminate ISIS?
The short answer is “Yes” but unfortunately the people of France are looking at one huge obstacle – ISIS sympathizer President Barack Obama. Since François Hollande has declared a war with ISIS, what he needs to do is to invoke Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which created the NATO alliance.
In a nutshell, the NATO Article 5 says an armed attack against a member state “shall be considered an attack against them all” hence would call on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and others (total 28 NATO members) to assist in the effort to “restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
Therefore, the US now has a legal obligation (which otherwise requires congress authorisation) to consider the attack against France as an attack against the US itself, and to “assist” France with “such action as it deems necessary,” including “the use of armed force.” So far so good, right? Wrong!
Thanks to President Obama, France is unlikely to see its big brother United States coming to its aid. But when the U.S. invoked the Article 5 after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, France is among the NATO nations that contributed ground forces to the subsequent war in Afghanistan. So, isn’t now the best time U.S. returns the favour?
Unfortunately, President François Hollande is unlikely to officially call for NATO help, because he knows Obama would say “No”. That’s because in a Monday speech, U.S. President Barack Obama cautioned that it would be a “mistake” to have full-scale ground force operations against the so-called Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL).
It would be a great embarrassment for Hollande to invoke Article 5 only to have the U.S. chicken out so France appears to be considering other options. He can’t depend on Germany too because Chancellor Angela Merkel has more important task on her plate – managing and satisfying Syrian refugees’ needs.
Furthermore, Obama isn’t a president who can stomach a full scale war with ISIS. Like Merkel who’s busy babysitting the refugees, the POTUS is facing rebels back home when 25 Republican and one Democrat governors have declared they don’t want Syrian refugees in their states, of which Obama has committed.
In fact, fresh from their Paris attacks, the ISIS has issued a new threat to attack Washington D.C. in a new video uploaded on their website – “We say to the states that take part in the crusader campaign that, by God, you will have a day, God willing, like France’s and by God, as we struck France in the centre of its abode in Paris, then we swear that we will strike America at its centre in Washington.”
Sensing that America will not help under the present Obama administration, western leaders including British PM David Cameron and even Saudi Arabia’s King Salman were seen queuing up for their turn for photos with Russian President Vladimir Putin at G20 summit in Turkey. Heck, even President Obama was seen sucking up to Putin by sharing jokes with him.
Like it or not, Putin holds the key to lead a war against the ISIS and hopefully resolving the Syria civil war. World leaders – U.S. France, Germany, Italy – seem to accept the reality that without the co-operation of Russia, there’s virtually little hope of destroying ISIS. Mr. Cameron, probably spoke on behalf of Obama, has offered a “compromise” to Putin.
When previously the stubborn and arrogant Obama and Cameron were adamant that Syrian Assad must go, now the British prime minister offered a softer approach and said the Syrian people should decide Assad’s future instead. While Russia shares France’s agony when its Metrojet Airbus was downed by ISIS in Egypt killing 224 people, the pressure is on western countries where the ISIS is targeting next.
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November 17th, 2015 by financetwitter
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