By-Elections – PAS Will Lose Big … But Here’s A Win-Win Formula

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May 12 2016
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Opposition parties lost last week’s Sarawak state election. One of the major reasons was due to clashes between DAP and PKR. Therefore, DAP and PKR must hug, kiss and make love, and must not fight like two spoilt kids anymore. Together with AMANAH, a splinter party of Islamic party PAS, the threesomes’ relationship would be awesomely delicious.


Fortunately or rather unfortunately, depending on who you speak to, a straight fight may not be the ultimate answer for the coming two by-elections in Peninsula Malaysia – Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar. That’s because there were other factors which contributed to the opposition’s losses in Sarawak due to the state’s uniqueness.

Sarawak Election - Indigenous People

A lawyer thought Prime Minister Najib Razak would be too chicken to face voters in both Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar constituencies. He speculated that the ruling coalition government – Barisan Nasional (BN) – and Election Commission may play dirty to avoid the by-elections by declaring the seat vacant only after June 24.


June 24 is the date where 222 elected Member of Parliaments took their oath of office and attended the first term of the 13th parliamentary sitting in 2013, thus completing 3-year duration into a 5-year term, after which a by-election is “not necessary“. The seats became vacant after the death of Sungai Besar MP Noriah Kasnon and Kuala Kangsar MP Wan Muhammad Khairil in a helicopter crash in Sarawak.

Barisan Nasional 2013 General Election Campaign - Najib Razak Poster

Both seats are important because they’re parliamentary seats. More importantly, both were won by PM Najib’s UMNO party with razor-thin majority of 399 (Sungai Besar) and 1,082 (Kuala Kangsar) votes in the 2013 national election. Traditionally, both seats were fought by opposition PAS party. Naturally, PAS believe the seats belong to them and no one else.


First thing first, do you think PM Najib Razak will avoid both seats after a stunning victory in Sarawak, despite his explosive 1MDB scandal and the unpopular GST policy? NO WAY! In fact, he has more reason to contest both seats to benchmark his administration chances in Peninsula Malaysia, should he decides to call for a nationwide snap election this year.

13 General Election - Parliamentary Seats Performance 2008 vs 2013

After all, even if Najib losses one or both parliamentary seats, his government will not collapse. His ruling coalition government will still possess 131 seats (minus 2 seats) in the 222-parliament-seat. At worst, he can stubbornly sit throughout his 5-year term until August 2018, annoying the hell out of his critics. But can PAS really win one of the seats, let alone both?


Looking at the past results from 2004, 2008 to the 2013 national elections, there’s little doubt that PAS has 99% probability of winning both seats this round. Thanks to PAS supremo Hadi Awang, however, such opportunity was long gone the moment he chose to shout “HUDUD” and subsequently severed its relationship with DAP. He had burnt the bridge.

Prime Minister Najib Razak and PAS President Hadi Awang

Heck, Mr Hadi isn’t very sure if his comrades should even contest, let alone win any of the vacant parliamentary seats now that he is looking upon once-evil-enemy PM Najib as his superhero. Hadi has shamelessly self proclaimed PAS as special adviser to Najib administration, in spite of UMNO dragging their feets on the hudud implementation.


Amusingly, DAP haters have been asking a cute question – after losing 5 seats in Sarawak state election, will the Chinaman make a U-turn and beg PAS for forgiveness, suck Hadi’s balls and bend over for him to do as he wishes? Why would DAP invite PAS to sodomise them when the former is not contesting for both seats, just for the sake of opposition unity?

Kuala Kangsar P67 - 2004, 2008, 2013 General Election Results - Graph Summary

On the contrary, it should be PAS who needs to suck up DAP’s balls and make them climax. How come? That’s because Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar have 31% and 24% Chinese voters respectively. Considering over 90% of Chinese votes went to opposition (read: PAS) during 2013 election, that’s a whopping 10,517 and 6,085 Chinese votes for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar respectively.


Be afraid DAP haters. Based on the same (2013) official turnout and 90% of Chinese votes swung in favour of PAS in the last general election, the Islamic party is looking at 10,517 votes in Sungai Besar and 6,085 votes in Kuala Kangsar that may swing to UMNO or may be absent to protest against PAS this time, thanks to Hadi Awang.

Sungai Besar P93 - 2004, 2008, 2013 General Election Results - Graph Summary

Even if DAP could be persuaded to campaign for PAS, which would be extremely awkward and highly unlikely, the damage has already been done and the Chinese voters, just like the Sarawakians, might just choose not to vote at all, causing a low turnout. Either way, PAS is toast and cannot possibly win any of the parliamentary seats (*grin*).


True, both DAP and PAS’ level of ego and arrogance is legendary. That can be tackled with hugs and kisses. But what cannot be fixed or extinguished is the flame of “hudud”, a curse that not even the “Dark One” Rumpelstiltskin can fix. So, if PAS is doomed to lose in both by-elections, why not use this opportunity to perform an experiment to better strategise the next 14th national election?

Pakatan Harapan - Opposition New Pact

We’re talking about multi-cornered beauty contests to determine which party – PAS, Amanah or PKR – can command the most votes based on the worst scenario. All of them are unique. PAS claims to be the best (extreme) Islamic party money can buy. Amanah claims to be a moderate Islamic party. PKR, made up of mostly ex-UMNO, claims to be a multi-racial party.


As UMNO, PAS, Amanah and PKR fight over the throne, DAP can sit and watch with coke and popcorn. However, PKR, under Azmin Ali’s traitorship, might be too chicken to enter the ring unless his intention is to split votes in order to help PM Najib. As the Selangor state Chief Minister, Azmin owes his position to both PAS and UMNO.

Azmin Ali – PKR Deputy President (Selangor Chief Minister)

If only Hadi Awang knew these two seats would go vacant, he wouldn’t have had bent over so quick for Najib Razak to screw him. If the old Pakatan Rakyat had stayed intact today, PAS would surely win these 2 additional parliamentary seats. But it’s water under the bridge now so there’s little benefit to cry over spilt milk. Still, there’s a win-win solution.


With due respect, all the opposition parties – PKR, DAP, PAS, Amanah – should be grateful that two seats have fell vacant. Here’s the experiment. PAS and Amanah will each take one vacant seat to fight the mighty UMNO on a straight fight. Play rock-paper-scissors if they like, but considering the present hostility, the fairest strategy is to divide both seats equally.

Play rock-paper-scissors

Sure, both seats were traditionally PAS’ but it’s “not their birthright”. After Hadi Awang decided to go solo on his flirting adventure with evil UMNO, the party has essentially lost the “privilege” in claiming the seats. So, the Islamic party should think twice about telling other opposition parties to “fuck off”. That’s “bodoh sombong” – stupid yet arrogant.


If PAS can’t even unseat UMNO when 90% of Chinese votes were behind them, what makes them think they can win “without” the Chinese votes now? But wait, shouldn’t the opposition parties unite against the evil UMNO? Haven’t the opposition parties learnt the lesson from the Sarawak state election? That’s a valid argument but unfortunately, PAS isn’t an opposition party.


Well, technically speaking, PAS is an UMNO-friendly party so they have no business giving orders to PKR, DAP or Amanah. If PAS is sincere about winning, they should accept the formula of picking a seat while leaving the other seat for Amanah (or PKR) to fight it over with UMNO. Otherwise, there should be multiple-cornered fights and let the best formula win.


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A good analysis. PAS needs a leadership change. The present leader knows less of politics. He will fail PAS big.

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