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Forget About PAS, Here’s How UMNO Could Lose Johor State



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Jun 22 2015
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Sabah and Sarawak have been Barisan Nasional (BN) “fixed deposit” since independence in 1957, and it will remain so for the next 50-years, unfortunately. That’s a reality, not because Sabahans and Sarawakians were dumb but because majority of them were dirt poor. And they were freaking poor primarily because they were systematically denied their basic infrastructure – water, electricity, healthcare, roads, education.

 

Johor, on the other hand is blessed with not only basic infrastructure, but also pampered with a caring royal family – the Sultanate of Johor. There’re hardly any poor people in Johor, at least that was what Johoreans frequently claim. Whether this is an exaggerated statement or otherwise, the fact is Johoreans are much fortunate than Sabahans and Sarawakians.

Malaysia and Johor Flags

Many so-called experts and specialists say DAP, one of three component parties in opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR), is arrogant and stupid for rushing in declaring Pakatan Rakyat’s death. Really? Well, you may not realise it but DAP is perhaps the cleverest party among all in Pakatan Rakyat.

 

Let’s look at PR from the angle of stock trading. If PR is Felda Global Venture (KLSE: FGV, stock-code 5222), investor DAP had dumped the stock ages ago, in compliant with “loss-cutting” rules. When something goes wrong, you avoid holding rotten stocks. Investor PAS, on the other hand, is still holding FGV stock while declaring the company is not dead yet.

FGV - Stock Chart - 22June2015

True, FGV is not “officially” dead yet, but does it really matter when the share price has been deteriorating since its IPO, so much so that the stock has lost 60% of its value from IPO price of RM4.45 to the present RM1.75 a share? PAS’s hudud problems are like the FGV’s top management problems, period. So, who’s the better investor here?

 

Taking the cue from BN’s cheerleaders MCA and Gerakan tumbling support, DAP was smart enough to realise they cannot act dumb when PAS unleashed the “Hudud Law” weapon. To do so would mean DAP is no different from MCA or Gerakan. DAP’s survival depends on its 80% – 95% dominance of the Chinese votebank.

Malay Man With DAP Flag

DAP alone enjoys absolute 95% of Chinese votes; while UMNO, PKR, PAS are fighting tooth and nail sharing 95% of Malay votes. And soon, there may be a new PASMA fighting for the same cake. The louder DAP trumpets its displeasure about hudud, the better it is in locking the Chinese supports. Pure and simple.

 

The party also realises that it needs to find replacement of lost Malay votes resulting from its rivalries with PAS. DAP has to move forward instead of beating around the bush engaging in a nagging and bitching contest with PAS. And that could be the message from DAP brilliant strategist – Liew Chin Tong – about the party’s next step.

Malaysia 13 General Election - Kluang Liew Chin Tong

However, DAP knows the party cannot take over the federal government on its own. It has to work with non-extremist parties such as PKR and build new alliances such as PASMA. Still, there’s no guarantee that PKR would not be wiped out, or follows PAS step – such as a betrayal by Selangor Chief Minister Azmin Ali by joining forces with PAS and UMNO.

 

All possibilities have been calculated. That’s why DAP is recruiting smart and progressive Malays like crazy. The plan was to form alliances while at the same time grow its Malay talents base. And that’s exactly why pro-Najib, pro-Mahathir, pro-PAS, pro-UMNO bloggers are dead worry hence accuse DAP of being Chinese chauvinists. DAP is very strong indeed, hence the needs to weaken it.

Johor Darul Tazim

The latest strategy from DAP is to take over Johor state. What? Is this the craziest and dumbest plan ever, considering Johor is UMNO’s strongest fortress? For God sake, the original UMNO was established in this state. Well, judging by the latest fiasco between the Johor Palace and UMNO, the arrogant political party could lose its Johor fixed deposit.

 

Actually, it wasn’t just about Gangster Nazri Aziz threatening Johor Crown Prince, Tunku Ismail Ibrahim with a “whack”, or the Sultan Ibrahim’s criticism about UMNO government’s pathetic education system, that clouds the relationship between them. There were also business deals, land grabs and Najib incompetency that contribute to the problems.

13 General Election - State Seats Performance 2008 vs 2013

PAS contested 31 state seats in Johor during the 2013 general election, but won only 4 seats. DAP contested 14 seats and won 13; while PKR contested 11 seats and won 1. In order to form a simple majority state government, you need to win at least 29 seats in the Johor 56 state seats government.

2013 General Election - Johor State Seats Won by Barisan Nasional

Looking at the statistics above, Najib administration could lose 11 Johor state seats in the event of a 5% votes swing in favour of the opposition, reducing BN to just 27 seats from the present 38. Interestingly, these 11 seats were made of 37% to 72% of Malay voters. In an extreme situation of 5% to 10% swing, UMNO could lose another 12 seats. Either way, UMNO is dead meat.

2013 General Election - Johor State Seats Won by Pakatan Rakyat

Of course, the opposition could easily lose 9 state seats too, with a 5% votes swing; and another 4 seats in case of up to 10% swing. However, based on the present anti-Najib administration sentiment and the Permatang Pauh and Rompin by-election results, the money is on the table that UMNO has a better chance of losing its votes.

 

Should Emperor Najib be advised to “terminate” his own deputy prime minister Muhyiddin, hence triggering an internal crisis within UMNO, its influence in Johor would be further eroded. As a warlord of Johor, Muhyiddin’s sacking could cause protest votes to swing into opposition’s piggie-bank. Muhyiddin has nothing to lose by sabotaging Najib.
Muhyiddin Yassin - Malaysia Deputy Prime Minister

After all, Mahathir and Muhyiddin’s philosophy is – “if you cannot beat them, destroy their toys”. The question is – can the Sultan of Johor accept a non-UMNO state government? On paper, it seems members of the royal house are open-minded and belong to the progressive generation.

Sultan Ismail Ibrahim - Normal Wear

The perception is the royalty prefers good governance above anything else, and that’s comforting. Thus, while an independence of Kingdom of Johor may not happen at all, UMNO could still lose Johor through ballot box. If the Sultanate of Johor supports a non-UMNO government, literally UMNO is game over in this state.

 

That’s precisely why DAP creates smokescreen in Selangor but quietly aiming for Johor. Using Penang and Selangor as a successful role model (minus PAS), a new opposition alliance could re-create the once short-lived Perak PR government in Johor. Fortunately, Johoreans do not treasure extremism.

Sultanate of Johor - Family Members Photo Session

Perhaps that explains why PAS did terribly bad during the last general election, despite the party being the most Islamic of all. Considering the 4 seats won by PAS in Johor has Chinese voters to the tune of 42% to 47%, PASMA could pocket these seats at the expense of PAS, assuming a new alliance of DAP-PASMA or DAP-PASMA-PKR can work seamlessly.

 

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Comments

Sir,
FGV ONLY lost 60% share price ma…, and they will tell you that’s only paper loss. Keep it longer you may even make money 10 years down the road. But then again, they can easily give you other IPO that tanked more 60% – that Tony guy’s AAX is only 21 sen. 21 sen divide by IPO’s price of RM1.26, just do the maths……

I take issue with your statement that ‘DAP is perhaps the cleverest party among all in Pakatan Rakyat’ for rushing in to declare PR dead.

As you also said ” DAP’s survival depends on its 80% – 95% dominance of the Chinese votebank. DAP alone enjoys absolute 95% of Chinese votes … The louder DAP trumpets its displeasure about hudud, the better it is in locking the Chinese supports. Pure and simple.”

That to me is not being clever and certainly not the cleverest. Kiasu is more apt. DAP may enjoy 95% of chinese votes but these 95% chinese votes are located in how many constituencies? Do they need the high margin of win to win Putrajaya? And sacrifice other marginal seats consisting of majority non-Chinese contested by others?

By screaming hudud as their 95% chinese voters cannot see past hudud and demanding that PKR do likewise, they distance the 95% Malays many of whom are still with UMNO, PAS or faltering fence-sitters from PR.

And they expect PASMA or whoever their new partners are, the liberal Malays to capture the Malay votes, most of which are in the heartlands?

They recruit a few Malays like Khairil Johari, Dyana Sofia, Pak Samad and Aziz Basri and that is growing its Malay base? Please lah, all the Malay recruits in DAP have no grassroots support. Datuk Hussein (Sakmongkol AK 47) included.

To take over Putrajaya means capturing seats in the hinterland. DAP has by its own behaviour plus BN propaganda given the perception to these precious Malay votes that is is a chinese chauvinist party. Until and unless, it has more Malay grassroot support, it will continue to be barking around in the opposition.

To take over Putrajaya, eat humble pie, recognise that having 95% chinese support is actually a set-back as Malaysia is only less than 30% chinese; work hard and be more accommodating with other partners in order to be able to capture the votes of the other 70% non-chinese.

Point taken Lynn. If DAP doesn’t blow the trumpet rejecting Hudud, to whom do you think the Chinese votes would go to? Do you think DAP doesn’t know they cannot win Putrajaya based on Chinese votes alone?

Kit Siang & the late Karpal Singh had conducted every single experiment throughout their lives. The only way to win is to produce an example. And to do that, they’ve to win a state. And to win a state, they’ve to win the Chinese votes first (Penang).

If they do not reject Hudud, they would lose Penang, as can be seen in Teluk Intan. The risk of holding to Penang but losing “some” Malay votes due to Hudud rejection is worth everything. The truth is, not all Malay like Hudud.

If 100% Malay like Hudud and nothing else, PAS would have had conquered this land 50-years ago. The line has been drawn. PAS’ influence, and hudud for that matter, is only confined to Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah.

The rest of Malay votebank belongs to UMNO, especially the Felda rural areas. Past statistics can tell you that.

Sure, Malays who have joined DAP does not have grassroots support. But what type of grassroots are you referring to? Those from PAS’ camp or UMNO’s camp? Only warlords have strong grassroots support.

PAS warlords wouldn’t join DAP because their survival depends on Hudud. UMNO warlords wouldn’t join DAP because no money to feed their grassroots. So, do you expect Muhyiddin, Badawi, Chua Soi Lek, or even Hadi Awang to join DAP?

Former Selangor Chief Minister Muhammad Taib was once a warlord with strong grassroots. Is he as influential as before, now that he doesn’t have good cashflow? Don’t think so.

DAP cannot capture Putrajaya alone. That’s a fact. But if they play dumb when PAS screams Hudud, they’re no different from MCA/Gerakan, and would lose Penang and Selangor. That’s a fact. Their partners could also betray them. That’s a fact.

So, the best way is to develop their own Malay talents. These new recruits have no grassroots, but that’s better than have no Malay candidates to be sent to the battle field at all.

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