Before unelected and backdoor Prime Minister Ismail Sabri dissolved the Parliament, paving the way for the 15th General Election, opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) has threatened not to hold state elections simultaneously. But it was not only PH, who rules Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan, had insisted it would not dissolve the three state assemblies.
Perikatan Nasional (PN), the biggest governing partner of the backdoor regime, also decided not to dissolve the states they control – Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu. That would leave 3 states under Barisan Nasional (BN) namely Pahang, Perlis and Perak to go to the national polls together. Melaka, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak are excluded as they had recently held their state elections.
The threat not to dissolve all the state assemblies was made as a sign of protest against Sabri’s move to dissolve Parliament on Oct 10, primarily due to concerns of massive floods during the monsoon season. For the first time, both the opposition and the biggest ally of the government had agreed on something common – rejects the power-crazy leadership of UMNO, Sabri’s own party.
However, turtle-egg Sabri was just a puppet that got the job by accident. He ranked third in the hierarchy of United Malays National Organization (UMNO). Despite being the prime minister, Sabri wasn’t the most powerful man. UMNO president Zahid Hamidi was more powerful because he signs the letter of candidacy (“surat watikah”) for UMNO candidates to contest in the poll.
Now that the Parliament is dissolved, the Opposition appears to be trapped by its own pledge not to dissolve all the three state assemblies under its control. Pakatan Harapan, comprising PKR (People’s Justice Party), DAP (Democratic Action Party), Amanah and UPKO (United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation), is now having a second thought.
Unlike Perikatan Nasional, who has decided not to dissolve Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu come flood or shine, the people of Penang wanted both the parliamentary and state elections to be held concurrently. It was easier for PN to decide because those three states are under the influence of PAS Islamist party, which uses religion to ensure the obedience of their supporters.
Ethnic Chinese in Penang, however, are more pragmatic. DAP, which leads the state, has justified that based on the pulse on the ground, Penang voters might be reluctant to vote twice in less than a year. If they were to vote next month (November) for MPs, they would have to vote again in the middle of next year in the state election, not to mention the Chinese New Year which falls on January 2023.
It might not be too troublesome for Penang people residing on the island. But it would be burdened to those who work elsewhere, such as in the capital Kuala Lumpur, Selangor or even Singapore. So, why not strike when the iron is hot – voters’ anger due to selfish UMNO leaders in bulldozing a snap election during rainy season – and vote for MPs and state assemblymen at the same time?
It would ease logistic arrangements as well as helping outstation voters save money if they go back home only once instead of twice just to vote. It’s already bad that voters are generally still disillusioned and demoralized after losing federal government due to treachery and betrayal by Bersatu, once an ally of Pakatan Harapan during the 2018 General Election.
It will be worse if Penang stunningly lost because voters refuse or cannot go back to vote in the state election next year. As demonstrated in the Nov 2021 Melaka (turnout – 65.85%) and March 2022 Johor (turnout – 54.92%) state elections, voter turnout is typically low compared to national polls. In the past, both the federal and state elections were held simultaneously, except in Sarawak.
Thanks to a corrupt UMNO gangster called Zahid Hamidi, the election process is turned upside-down. The UMNO president is hoping for a low turnout to win the upcoming election so that he can become the 10th Prime Minister, and abuse his power to appoint a new Attorney General or to change the judges in order to drop his ongoing corruption trials.
Compared to Penang, the number of outstation people rushing back to vote in Selangor is least serious, largely because it is the most developed and richest state where people sought employment. That explains why Selangor, leads by PKR, can afford to wait till the end of its 5-year-term next year to hold the state election. But the same cannot be said about Negeri Sembilan.
There are two solutions – simultaneously dissolve all three states or a hybrid approach whereby Penang dissolves its assembly while allowing the other two states – Selangor and Negeri Sembilan – hold out. A hybrid approach will allow Pakatan Harapan to test the theory whether the best strategy is to hold federal and state elections concurrently or otherwise.
The top leadership of PKR and certain DAP leaders have argued that all three states should not dissolve their respective state assemblies because to do so will be hypocritical. After condemning selfish UMNO for jeopardising people’s lives over self interest and power by holding an early election at the wrong time, the opposition leaders fear they would be mocked and laughed by UMNO for making a U-turn.
However, PH should recognize that holding separate elections could backfire. Unless it is extremely confident it can win the 15th General Election, which it can’t, chances are the next Barisan Nasional government will brutally mobilize and abuse all the national resources to attack the opposition in their state elections next year, including its favourite tactic – “vote buying”.
On the other hand, if PH can win the nationwide election next month, it does not matter if it also holds state elections concurrently or not. If it wins and forms the federal government, logically it also means all the three states will remain under PH’s control. So, the key is to win the parliamentary election. It only shows lack of confidence if PH is still indecisive.
If it makes the leaders of PH feel better, perhaps they can quickly do some surveys on the ground – asking people what is their choice. The state of government of Penang has already shared their findings that the people there prefer a concurrent election. Rafizi Ramli, PKR deputy president, could easily use his think-tank to collect data and make decisions. Just ask the people what they want.
Like it or not, people have no choice but to vote next month because they will choose the next central government. Even if massive floods hit the country, the people will go out to vote if they are determined to vote. On the contrary, if they have no intention to vote, they will find a thousand excuses not to vote. It’s not rocket science that it’s easier and more convenient to vote for MPs and state assemblymen at the same polling booth.
Strategy wise, it also makes more sense for PH to focus all resources and power next month because the enemies – BN and PN – are also at each other’s throat. Because both BN and PN are split, PH still has the advantage even if voter turnout isn’t exceptionally high. But if UMNO and PAS join forces under the pretext of “Malay unity”, a separate state election next year would be a challenge to PH.
Another school of thought as to why the opposition wants the state elections to be held separately has to do with psychological warfare. They hope that in the event they lost the general election, they could rally supporters to go back to vote next year – by hook or by crook – because Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan will be the only things left to defend.
Holding state elections after parliamentary elections also provides a strategic opportunity for incumbent governments. The results of parliamentary elections allow the state government to study the voting patterns on lost constituencies. The data could be scrutinized to fix local problems, roll out initiatives and customize campaign materials for the coming state election next year.
Regardless of Pakatan Harapan’s final decision, they should be flexible and decisive to maximize the chances of winning the 15th General Election. Penang is a small island. And only Penangites know what’s best for the state. If they want a concurrent election, their wish should be granted. In truth, UMNO isn’t that strong, but thinks it is incredibly strong. UMNO can be defeated again.
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October 14th, 2022 by financetwitter
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