PH-UMNO Strategic Alliance In The Next 15th General Election – Careful What You Wish For

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Mar 10 2021
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Karma is a bitch, as the saying goes. Now that Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition has reverted to its previous role as the Opposition, thanks to traitors like Muhyiddin Yassin and Azmin Ali, the pressure is on the ruling Perikatan Nasional (PN) government to retain its power. And it appears the backdoor PM Muhyiddin could become the shortest serving prime minister, if a snap election is called this year.


The only formula for Muhyiddin to win is to ensure all the three Malay political parties in the hastily glued PN – namely UMNO, PPBM and PAS – cooperate together in the next 15th General Election. Of all the 222 parliamentary seats in the country, 119 are the Malay-majority. Therefore the 99.9% Malay government will easily win the federal government, at least in theory.


Unfortunately to the traitors, the increasing hostility between UMNO and PPBM means Muhyiddin’s party has to make do with PAS Islamist party. Even then, the prime minister has to pray his buddy Hadi Awang won’t ditch him at the eleventh hour. Without UMNO’s powerful grassroots and machinery, PAS’ resources are insufficient to help PPBM (Bersatu).

Perikatan Nasional vs Muafakat Nasional - Zahid Hamidi vs Muhyiddin Yassin

To make matters worse, UMNO is toying with the idea of cooperating with opposition PH. If indeed UMNO and PH could somehow find a common ground or denominator to work together, it’s game over for PN. The UMNO-PPBM-PAS is a winning formula, as do UMNO-PKR-DAP-Amanah. Even if UMNO goes alone like it did in the 14th General Election, PN is toast.


In a three-cornered contest, PN without UMNO will be slaughtered like a pig. In a scenario of Perikatan Nasional (PN) vs. Pakatan Harapan (PH) vs. Barisan Nasional (BN), PN will still be slaughtered. That’s because even though PAS has its own grassroots and machinery, their strength is confined to the east coast. There’s a reason why PAS won only 18 out of over 150 parliamentary seats contested in 2018.


Thus, PAS, assuming they are still not drunk with power, will most likely betray Muhyiddin’s party PPBM at the last minute if its partner in Muafakat Nasional – UMNO – decides to quit PN. On Feb 26, UMNO sent a letter to the prime minister, informing him that as a result of UMNO Supreme Council’s meeting, UMNO would only work with the government until Parliament is dissolved.

Muhyiddin Yassin and Hadi Awang

However, in the world of Malay politics, where deceit, lies, betrayal and backstabbing are considered as morning breakfast, UMNO’s threat not to cooperate with Muhyiddin in the next general election is not cast in stone. U-turns could happen and money would change hands. Besides, the weak and incompetent UMNO president Zahid Hamidi is no match for the cunning prime minister.


PAS’ first choice is the current UMNO-PPBM-PAS alliance because it gets to play kingmaker. The current composition also allows UMNO’s dominance to be neutralized. Its second choice is to work with UMNO through Muafakat for obvious reason, while a PPBM-PAS alliance is the last resort. On the other hand, PPBM has only 1 option – maintains current configuration.


UMNO, on the other hand, is spoilt with choices. Its first choice has always been working with PAS. Past by-elections had proven that UMNO-PAS alliance works like a charm. Together, they could easily win all the 119 Malay-majority constituencies, at least on paper. This winning formula also assures the return of UMNO’s dominance, something which PAS is trying to avoid.

UMNO - Sebuah Perjuangan - A Struggle

Its second choice has now shifted to a possible strategic cooperation with opposition PH, in case Muhyiddin keeps throwing cash and Mercedes-Benz in the face of Hadi Awang. This unthinkable option, interestingly, potentially provides a bigger win than an alliance with PAS, so much so a UMNO-PKR-DAP-Amanah cooperation could win two-thirds super majority.


The third choice of UMNO is to lead the BN coalition like it did in 2018 for a three-cornered contest with PH and PN. The conventional wisdom is, if BN could win 79 seats back in 2018, it could certainly win more in the next election. UMNO alone had won 54 seats, the biggest winner, despite 1MDB scandal and the unpopular GST policy. But it will probably not win enough to form a government.


However, UMNO could still be part of the federal government through a mix and match after the 15th General Election, if the final results show no clear winner. After the “Sheraton Move” coup, UMNO knew it could work with PAS again to form yet another “Malay only” government. This time, UMNO will make sure to grab the powerful prime minister position.

Prime Minister-in-Waiting – Anwar Ibrahim

For the reasons mentioned above, Pakatan Harapan should be extremely careful in any alliance with UMNO or BN. While it’s true UMNO-PH is a cock-sure winning formula, the biggest issue is who gets to become the next prime minister. If UMNO will end up playing second fiddle again, exactly why should it work with PH when it is already being treated like second-class ally in PN?


In the same breath, if opposition de-facto leader Anwar Ibrahim can only become deputy prime minister in a hypothetical UMNO-PH government, exactly why was the PKR president so dumb not to grab power together with Mahathir last June? What is the logic of going one big round only to end up with the same thing which he had been offered in the first place much earlier?


Sure, one might argue that Mahathir cannot be trusted. But can Zahid Hamidi or any UMNO leaders be trusted for that matter? Was it not the UMNO president who played and tricked Anwar numerous times, resulting in the PM-in-waiting being humiliated and mocked over his declaration of having “strong, formidable and convincing” majority support to form a new government?

Anwar Ibrahim and Zahid Hamidi

The fact that PH under Anwar’s leadership is willing to work with UMNO crooks shows that the opposition actually needs a pure Malay party or leaders with influence to replace Mahathir Mohamad. Previously, Anwar’s hardcore supporters had threatened to quit PH and go solo in the next general election, boastfully claimed they can win on their own – without any help from DAP or Amanah.


Without DAP to help swing the Chinese voters, can PKR still win 47 parliamentary seats it won in 2018, let alone negotiate effectively with UMNO as a bloc of a powerful PH coalition? Anwar and his followers should realize that on its own, PKR is simply too powerless against UMNO. Only under PH as a coalition can PKR flex its muscles at the negotiation table.


Yesterday, UMNO election director Tajuddin Abdul Rahman said that his party will contest 120 seats in the next election, but with PAS, UMNO is willing to contest just 96 seats. Out of 222 seats in Parliament, 166 are in the Peninsula of which 70% are Malay-majority seats. It’s these 70% seats or 119 constituencies that UMNO greedily wanted to contest.

PAS President Hadi Awang and UMNO President Zahid Hamidi - Smiling and Waving

So, if UMNO was willing to go as low as 96 seats with PAS onboard, how may seats is it ready to give away if PH joins UMNO in facing the tag team of Muhyiddin-Hadi? Obviously, seat distribution is still a challenge between UMNO and PKR, even with DAP out of the picture. The easiest way is for everyone to contest the seats they had won in 2018.


That would mean UMNO, PKR, DAP and Amanah are to contest 54 seats, 47 seats, 42 seats and 11 seats respectively – bringing the total to 154 seats, more than two-thirds majority in the Parliament. The numbers are based on the assumption that PKR traitors like Azmin Ali and Zuraida Kamaruddin and UMNO defectors like Mustapa Mohamed and Hamzah Zainuddin are to be wiped out.


In the arrangement above, UMNO will win the most seats based on individual party’s strength, hence they will definitely claim the throne. However, as a coalition, PKR will get the most endorsements from fellow DAP and Amanah for the premiership. There is also the question of who will get to contest the 13 seats won by PPBM in 2018, all of which are Malay-majority.

Pakatan Harapan Flag

If UMNO were to claim all the PPBM’s 13 seats, which they will certainly do, their seats will increase to 67 if they win. Essentially, UMNO can always betray PH and work with PAS, Sabah and Sarawak to form a new Malay government. Has Anwar Ibrahim and his genius advisers considered all the possibilities, including the prospect of being tricked and betrayed again after the next general election?


Anwar, in his haste to strike a deal with UMNO, should realize the main reason UMNO trumpets the UMNO-PH alliance is to pressure PAS to abandon PPBM or PN. The PKR president appears to be too obsessed with UMNO, which is both silly and dangerous. Anwar and PH as a whole should have “Plan B” in case UMNO dumps it after achieving its evil agenda.


More crucially, PKR, DAP and Amanah should carry out a risk assessment or survey to determine how much support they would lose if they proceed to work with UMNO, the party they had once condemned as corrupt and racist. How would they explain the cooperation with crooks and racists like Zahid Hamidi, Najib Razak, Tajuddin Rahman and Tengku Adnan, just to name a few?

From Left – Tengku Adnan, Zahid Hamidi and Najib Razak


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Whatever the configuration, election would be the snake Anwar fighting the snake Pharaoh.

The DAP bitches will be fighting to become some monkey’s running dogs.

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