The Sungai Kandis constituency has 51,230 registered voters. In terms of race composition, 71.34% of the voters are Malays, 15.69% Indians and 11.75% Chinese. A by-election was triggered by the death of the assemblyman, Mat Shuhaimi Shafiei of PKR, of lymphoma cancer on July 2. The campaign has started and will end at 11.59 pm on Aug 3.

 

Previously, Mat Shuhaimi retained the Sungai Kandis seat (formerly known as Sri Muda) for the third term in the 14th General Election on May 9 by securing 23,998 votes to beat Kamaruzzaman Johari of the Barisan Nasional (11,518 votes), Mohd Yusof Abdullah of PAS (7,573) and Hanafiah Husin of Parti Rakyat Malaysia (76).

 

This is the first by-election since the old Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government was overthrown after ruling for 61 years since independence in 1957. But this is also the most crucial by-election for BN, and to a certain extent PAS (Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party). The fact that both BN and PAS didn’t contest again shows at least they are not that dumb after all.

At least BN and PAS knew their earlier strategy of engaging in 3-cornered fights, with an intention to split the Malay-Muslims votes, was a bloody disaster. Before the disastrous May 9 general election, then-UMNO President Najib Razak and PAS President Hadi Awang thought they were very clever – and invincible – by joining forces against the opposition.

 

This time, PAS has decided to give way, allowing its brother UMNO a chance to have a direct fight with PKR. And UMNO candidate, the notorious Lokman Noor Adam, should win this by-election to prove the argument that if both UMNO and PAS join forces, they can retake the federal government in the next 15th general election in 2023.

 

Yes, all the BN cybertroopers, propagandists and bloggers have been having wet dreams that they will rise again, shortest in 2 years and longest in 5 years, to become the lord again. Even the neighbouring Straits Times Singapore had suggested that the defeated Barisan Nasional coalition government could rise again and make a political comeback.

The argument was that only between 25%-30% of ethnic-Malay voted for the new Pakatan Harapan coalition government. Using figures from Merdeka Center, they said 35%-40% of Malays voted for BN while 30-33% supported PAS. In short, a BN-PAS partnership would get 65%-73% votes from the Malays. The Sungai Kandis will be the best experiment to prove that theory.

 

Thanks to negligible Chinese voters in Sungai Kandis, BN and PAS should have little trouble giving a bloody-nose to Mahathir administration. They should be able to get between 19,004 and 21,343 of Malay votes (based on 80% turnout). This means PKR can only get 7,894-10,233 Malay votes only. Without 15.69% Indians and 11.75% Chinese voters, PKR is toast.

 

It will be interesting to see if BN can secure at least between 19,004 and 21,343 Malay votes. That’s why they sent a racist and extremist such as Mr. Lokman to test the water in the Sungai Kandis by-election. After screaming until foaming at the mouth about Malay, Islam and Ruler losing power and dignity, Lokman, an UMNO Supreme Council member, should win.

Amusingly, Lokman today insists that he is not a racist despite playing the 3R cards (racial, religion, royalty) recently. Why is he so shy about fighting for the Malay race? He should actually proudly and openly admit that he is a racist, and there is nothing wrong to fight for the Malays, as he has been crying, whining and bitching all this while.

 

Heck, not only UMNO, under the leadership of President Zahid Hamidi, isn’t sure if they could secure 35%-40% of UMNO-Malay votes, they aren’t so sure that PAS could deliver the so-called 30-33% PAS-Muslim votes to the Barisan Nasional. That probably explains why Lokman dares not go full force condemning the Chinese and Indians to swing maximum Malay voters.

 

As Sungai Kandis is a Malay-majority state seat, not only UMNO President Zahid and PAS President Hadi Awang should spend the entire 14 days campaigning for Lokman, the ex-PM Najib Razak should also involve, explaining and clarifying to the 72% Malays that his conscience is clear, that he is clean and that he didn’t steal any money at all.

Without full commitment from PAS, it will show that Hadi Awang and his gang were only interested to enrich themselves, as proven in the audio clip where Nik Abduh, the son of former spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz, admitting that PAS top leaders – including himself – have accepted money from UMNO, in order to further the party’s political agenda.

 

More importantly, if UMNO and PAS cannot even agree to work together and win the Malay-majority Sungai Kandis seat, they can forget about the talks and rumours about a merger between both parties. It would be game over for them, not to mention the humiliation of not being able to defeat the new Pakatan Harapan coalition.

 

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July 24th, 2018 by financetwitter

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