As Russian forces fired at least 85 missiles across Ukrainian cities, a missile hit the village of Przewodów, Poland, killing 2 people and forced Biden to convene an emergency meeting on the final day of the Group of 20 (G-20) meeting in Indonesia. The U.S. president, who was awakened overnight by staff with the news of the incident, called Polish President Andrzej Duda to express his condolences.

 

The strike in Poland has seen NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg scrambled to call an urgent meeting in Brussels. It could trigger Article 5, which says that an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members. It would then force the 30-member alliance to take the collective defence action and declare war on Russia, potentially starts the World War 3.

 

To date, NATO has only invoked Article 5 once – in defense of the United States in the wake of the 9/11 (September 11) terrorist attacks. Interestingly, since 2002, Ukraine has sought entry into NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky desperately wanted to join the alliance, so much so he signed Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession to NATO as recently as Sept 30.

Before the Ukraine War started, Zelensky was encouraged and led to believe that the U.S. and NATO would help to fight the Russian. But that didn’t happen. Now that Zelensky wanted the Western powers to grant it an express approval so that Ukraine can be protected under Article 5 as a member of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization appears to be dragging its feet.

 

So, when a Russian missile hit a Polish village on Tuesday (Nov 15), Zelensky immediately accused Moscow of attacking Poland. He said – “Russian missiles hit Poland. The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be to anyone within reach of Russian missiles. This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act.”

 

Clearly, the Ukrainian president was instigating the U.S. and NATO to respond militarily, effectively dragging the West into the war. However, it’s still unknown who fired the missile because apparently both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made weapons, including missiles. Pentagon itself could not prove that it was the Kremlin that had fired the missile.

In fact, there were confusion and contradiction when a senior U.S. intelligence official told the AP that Russian missiles crossed into Poland, only for another U.S. assessment that the missile was actually fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile. Therefore, the missile that hit Poland could be a Russian-made missile fired by Ukraine to intercept a missile coming from Russia.

 

Polish President Andrzej Duda said that it was “most probably” Russian-made but that its origins were still being verified. However, Biden said it was “unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia based on the trajectory of the rocket, even though the leaders of the Group of 7 (G-7) agreed to investigate. But how could Biden be so sure it wasn’t Russian’s fault before an investigation could even start?

 

So, there could be two possibilities. One, during the massive missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, one of them went off the target – either accidentally or intentionally – and hit Poland. It could be a deliberate attempt to test the reactions from Washington, as well as to create chaos within NATO, raising the question of when to trigger the Article 5.

Second possibility – all the Russian missiles fell within the Ukraine territory, but Ukraine had tried to manipulate the bombardment by firing one of its Russian-made missiles into Poland to provoke NATO members to retaliate. Of course, even if the Pentagon knew about the plot, the U.S. can’t and won’t disclose it because Ukraine is fighting its proxy war against Russia.

 

Moscow, of course, has rubbished the accusations of its involvement. Russia said “the incident in Poland is an attempt to provoke a direct military clash between NATO and Russia”. It said the explosion was caused by a Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile based on  images of missile fragment identified by experts, saying it had not targeted anywhere within 35 km (22 miles) of the Ukraine-Polish border.

 

Still, Zelensky said Russia was to blame for “any incidents of missiles”, including the explosion in Poland. The “most massive bombardment” was specifically designed to target power generation and transmission systems – plunging many Ukrainian cities into darkness. Ukraine’s power grid was targeted to use the coming winter as a weapon by leaving people in the cold and dark.

After retaining control of the Senate in the just concluded midterm elections, Biden does not have appetite to escalate the Ukraine conflict any worse than it already has. He could use the missile incident, which could be orchestrated by the Pentagon, as an excuse to implement a “no-fly zone” to pressure Russian president Vladimir Putin, but didn’t.

 

The POTUS also met Chinese president Xi Jinping during the G20 summit in Indonesia aimed at preventing strained U.S.-China ties from spilling into a new Cold War, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken set to travel to Beijing for follow-up talks. After US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China had cancelled all types of communications in retaliation.

 

Unlike before the midterm election, Biden now offers more diplomatic language – “We’re going to compete vigorously. But I’m not looking for conflict, I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly”. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen similarly said that the U.S.-China meeting aimed to stabilize the relationship and to create a “more certain atmosphere” for U.S. businesses.

While Xi reminded the U.S. that Taiwan is the “first red line” that must not be crossed in U.S.-China relation, Biden has assured Xi that U.S. policy on Taiwan – the “One China” policy – had not changed. Biden said there was no need for a new Cold War – “I do not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan”, suggesting the U.S. would minimize provoking Beijing.

 

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November 16th, 2022 by financetwitter

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