All Signs Show Pakatan Harapan Could Have Crossed At Least 112 Seats To Form A New Government

Pin It

Nov 18 2022
Linked In

With less than 24 hours before the polling day on Saturday (Nov 19), signs are showing that opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) could spring a surprise victory in the 15th General Election. Based on the size of its mega “ceramah (campaign speech) programme” compared to opponents Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), the Opposition definitely has won.


Sure, size of ceramah isn’t an accurate measurement. Some have argued that the current crowd size cannot match those demonstrated during the 2018 General Election. Well, if PH’s crowds of supporters have declined, does that mean BN or PN managed to attract a bigger size in comparison? If neither BN nor PN could rival PH’s ceramah, does not that mean PH is leading?


Visibly absent are massive crowds of Chinese community seen in DAP ceramahs 4 years ago. Even Penang, a stronghold of the Democratic Action Party, is quiet this round, leading to speculation that ethnic Chinese have abandoned DAP. Actually, it was by design that such huge gatherings did not happen – not to spook Malays and gives ammunition to racist and radical UMNO, Bersatu and PAS.

Pakatan Harapan - Flags Planting By Supporter

There are many factors why the overall size of crowds was smaller than four years ago. The primary factor is the current rainy season. The second factor is the different campaign tools being used at this time. Unlike 2018 General Election, where people attended physically, they can now watch the ceramah “live” at the comfort of their home on social media such as Facebook or YouTube.


In fact, TikTok has become a new fierce battleground to engage and reach out to the younger crowd thanks to “Undi-18”, where young people aged 18 to 20 can cast their ballots for the first time. As the new kid on the block, TikTok is known as P225, after Facebook’s P223 and Twitter’s P224 – the digital “constituencies” extension to Malaysia’s 222 parliamentary seats being contested.


With the lowering of the voting age to 18 years and the introduction of automatic voter registration for those aged 18 and above, there are now 1.4 million new voters aged 18 to 20. Voters under the age of 30 number 6 million – constituting 29% of the total electorate of 21 million. It seems everyone, from the youngest to the oldest contestants, has scrambled to TikTok to get eyeballs.

TikTok App

By the end of the first week of campaigning, the hashtag campaign by Barisan Nasional’s #kestabilandankemakmuran (“Stability and Prosperity”) had captured 30.5 million views, while Perikatan Nasional’s #PNbest had grabbed about 53.4 million views. However, both were no match compared to Perikatan Harapan’s #kitaboleh (“We Can”), which attracted 94.5 million views.


But how do we know that PH’s bigger crowd size during ceramah and higher views in TikTok are meaningful and reliable indicators that the Opposition is leading, let alone is winning the poll before it even started? We don’t, but two days ago, secretary-general of PAS Islamist party – Takiyuddin Hassan – has let the cat out of the bag, without him realizing it.


Takiyuddin told all and sundry that he was confident that Barisan Nasional will be open to working with Perikatan Nasional to form the next federal government. He said – “PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had said that if we can’t work together with BN before the general election, maybe we can establish that relationship after the elections.”

Takiyuddin Hassan - PAS Secretary-General

The moron had no idea that he was surrendering before even voting begins this Saturday. If indeed PN under the leadership of Mahiaddin Yassin was winning the election campaign, Takiyuddin did not need to hastily send the signal to UMNO-led Barisan Nasional that Hadi Awang was ready to negotiate. He should have kept his big mouth shut till the election is over.


Obviously, the PAS secretary-general was ordered by his party president to test the water. Despite being labelled as “political prostitute” by UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh, the radical Islamist party keeps begging UMNO to sleep together again. Not only it shows that PN would be wiped out in the election, Hadi is preparing to abandon Mahiaddin’s ship in favour of UMNO.


Muhyiddin (Mahiaddin) was so upset and furious that he went ballistic, lecturing Takiyuddin that he does not have the authority to hold discussions with BN about forming the government with PN. The Bersatu president was not impressed because the PAS leader’s stupidity means PN has lost its bargaining chip. It would be harder for PN to demand the prime minister post.

Hadi Awang Betrays and Backstabs Muhyiddin Yassin

As a result of Muhyiddin’s reaction, Hadi had to pretend that PAS is willing to become the opposition again if PN fails to secure a simple majority to form the government. Claiming that the party has its principles, Mr Hadi said PAS doesn’t want to work with UMNO under the corrupt leadership of Zahid Hamidi. It was part of “playing hard to get” drama in case UMNO wants to work with PAS later.


However, it also suggests that on its own, Perikatan Nasional has absolutely no confidence to form the next government – even with Sabah and Sarawak. In the same breath, Barisan Nasional too would not win enough seats to form yet another Malay-Muslim government even with rival PN and all parties from the Borneo states thrown in, otherwise Hadi would have kept his mouth shut.


If BN, PN, Sarawak-based GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak) and Sabah-based GRS Gabungan Rakyat Sabah could work together like one big happy family and form a new government again, there was no reason for power-crazy Hadi mocking corrupted Zahid and burnt the bridge. It would scream hypocrisy of the highest order if PAS and UMNO hugs each other next week.

UMNO PAS Alliance - Zahid Hamidi and Hadi Awang

Essentially, this means PH has crossed the 112 parliamentary seats, at least on paper. Is this even possible, despite dozens of opinion polling that say there isn’t any coalition – PH, BN or PN – that could form the government on its own? The biggest problem with such surveys is that their sample size is too small and did not consider the 1.4 million new voters aged 18 to 20.


So far, all the surveys agreed that the Malay support for BN is dropping like a rock. Now, if BN is losing support and PAS isn’t convinced that PN could form the government, the logical conclusion is PH is the clear winner. There are 119 Malay-majority seats – more than the 112 minimum seats required to form a simple-majority government. Yet, none of the 3 biggest Malay parties – UMNO, Bersatu and PAS – couldn’t grab all of them.


The clearest proof that PN is struggling in desperation is Muhyiddin’s latest speech to stir racial and religion sentiments among Malays. After PAS preached that anyone who does not vote for them will go to hell and they were ready to slaughter non-Malays, Muhyiddin – panicked and terrified that his corruption would be investigated – showed his true colour when he spread fake news that Christians are working with Jews to Christianize Malaysia.

PM Muhyiddin - Sad Face Expression

Exactly how could PH win 112 seats? In the 2018 General Election, the People’s Justice Party (PKR) won 47 seats while Democratic Action Party (DAP) grabbed 42, National Trust Party (Amanah) captured 11 and Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu) had 13 – winning a total 113 seats (excluding Warisan, an ally that contributed another 8 seats).


Betrayed by Bersatu president Muhyiddin, the democratically-elected PH government collapsed and was left with 100 seats. Subsequent defections saw the opposition with 90 seats before the Parliament was dissolved on Oct 10, 2022. The latest surveys that show PH is leading means it could retain at least 90 seats. Additionally, it could snatch back all the seats lost through defections.


That’s why PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli’s Invoke Solutions, a data firm specializing in data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) products, predicts that PH could conservatively win between 90 and 100 – the seats it had originally won. It makes sense because if the data was wrong, it would mean the majority of the 166 seats in Peninsular Malaysian would be in BN or PN’s possession.

Anwar Ibrahim Contests in Tambun Ipoh - Pakatan Harapan

For example, if PH could win only 80 seats (or less), both BN and PN would share the remaining 86 seats (or more) – 26 seats short to forming the government, which can be contributed by GPS and GRS. In that case, there should be celebrations, not gloom and doom, in both BN and PN camps. In the 2018 polls, UMNO won 54 seats (dropped to 37 after a series of defections) and PAS grabbed 18 seats.


Four years ago, BN lost 53 seats in total, whereby 28 of the seats were lost by a margin of 10% or less. If it could wrestle back the 28 seats, UMNO could return to its past glory with 82 seats, becoming a dominant party (assuming it could reclaim 17 it had lost to Bersatu via party-hopping). Again, if BN could recapture those seats, power-hungry Hadi would not have insulted UMNO.


On top of the 100 seats PH is defending, the 13 seats originally won by Bersatu are up for grab, such as the Tambun parliamentary seat that PKR president Anwar Ibrahim is expected to snatch. Some of the 28 seats, which BN lost by a margin of 10% or less are also in PH’s radar. More importantly – UMNO, PAS and Bersatu would be cannibalizing each other for the Malay votes.

Pakatan Harapan - DAP, PKR, Amanah Symbols

Because PH has the advantage of cornering non-Malay votes, it does not need as much Malay votes as UMNO, PAS or Bersatu to win a seat. The more PN could swing UMNO traditional Malay votes away the better it is for PH. Worse, internal sabotage by at least 10 UMNO warlords who were dropped by Zahid could see some surprise jackpot for PH candidates.


Likewise, Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a component party of BN, has staged a drama by putting banners of Wee Ka Siong attending a temple event, but blames the racially-charged banners on PH. There were also banners put up by Wee’s boys in his Ayer Hitam constituency telling people to vote for a Malay candidate only, clearly a cheap trick to provoke Chinese to rally behind the useless and corrupt MCA president.


Another spectacular sign that BN has given up was when caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri declared Nov 18 and 19 as public holidays to enable electors to exercise their right to vote. Heck, he even announced free tolls for highway users, despite knowing that such moves would boost high turnout, which would benefit opposition Pakatan Harapan rather than Barisan Nasional.

Zahid Hamidi vs Ismail Sabri

Is Sabri sabotaging BN by encouraging a high turnout? Perhaps it was his clever strategy after all. If BN wins big, it’s almost cast in stone that Zahid Hamidi will become the 10th Prime Minister, who will then almost certainly win the next UMNO presidency. But if BN performs worse than 2018 General Election, Zahid is game over – forced out of UMNO and Sabri could take over the party.


The turtle-egg man’s only option to return as PM is to become UMNO new president first. And for that to happen, BN has to lose. That explains why Khairy Jamaluddin is forming a new tag-team with Ismail Sabri. Instead of rallying people to vote BN, Khairy is begging voters in Sungai Buloh to vote for him personally. He throws support behind Sabri as PM, who in turn supports Khairy as “future PM”.


Other Articles That May Interest You …

Pin It

FinanceTwitter SignOff
If you enjoyed this post, what shall you do next? Consider:

Like FinanceTwitter Tweet FinanceTwitter Subscribe Newsletter   Leave Comment Share With Others



Excellent article

Leave a Reply


(required)(will not be published)