Coronavirus cases are declining everywhere – except Europe. The WHO (World Health Organization) reported last week that Covid-19 death jumped by 10% in Europe, making it the only place on the planet where infections and deaths are steadily increasing. In fact, it has been the sixth consecutive week that Covid has risen in the continent.

 

The U.N. health agency also revealed that out of 3.1 million new cases recorded globally, almost two-thirds of it – 1.9 million infections – were in Europe. The latest statistics show that the countries with the highest numbers of Covid new cases are the U.S., Russia, Britain, Turkey and Germany. But while the weekly Covid-19 deaths fell by about 4% worldwide, it didn’t happen in Europe.

 

In Germany alone, the Europe’s biggest economy reported “record” daily infections with more than 50,000. The situation was so serious that the German army is preparing to mobilize 12,000 soldiers to help healthcare services and hospitals that are being overwhelmed with new Covid cases. It means the new wave is worse than the previous three waves.

A similar situation is happening in the Netherlands, where more than 16,000 daily new cases were reported – the country’s highest infections since the pandemic began in 2020. The Dutch government has since returned to partial lockdown for at least 3 weeks, forcing the closure of bars, restaurants and essential shops from 8pm, while non-essential services have to close at 6pm.

 

Another country that hit new record since the pandemic began last year is Austria, reporting more than 11,000 new infections on Sunday. The country has imposed a nationwide lockdown against unvaccinated people, preventing individuals older than age 12 from leaving their homes except for essential activities such as working, grocery shopping or going for a walk.

 

Even Norway has reimposed “restrictions” throughout the country due to a surge in the virus cases. While it’s neither a full nor a partial lockdown, the Norwegian government has reintroduced its Coronavirus health pass. The certificates are needed to access big events and venues such as nightclubs. People who are not vaccinated obviously will be denied access.

Denmark, on the other hand, has also reinstated its Covid-19 health pass, which is mandatory to be shown by guests at restaurants, bars, cafes and other public places. The country is also considering fast-track legislation to require a digital “Corona Pass” for employers. However, the government isn’t sure if the Corona-Pass alone would slow the epidemic.

 

So, what actually are the factors contributing to the return of Covid-19 in Europe? After all, countries like Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Denmark have a quite high vaccination rate. About 67.5% of the Germans had received two doses of vaccine, while the Netherlands (72.1% fully vaccinated), Norway (69.9%) and Denmark (75.9%) all have quite an impressive inoculation rate.

 

Well, apparently, those vaccination rates are not high enough. Spain and Portugal appear to be in a better situation with 79% and 86.4% people fully vaccinated respectively. Therefore, France, with only 68.7% people fully vaccinated, but has yet to see deterioration like Germany, is feared to have entered the fifth wave like its neighbouring countries.

Warning that Covid-19 infection rates are climbing again, French president Emmanuel Macron said earlier this week that those aged 65 and above in the country will need to show proof of a Covid-19 booster jab to be able to visit restaurants, attend cultural events, and take intercity trains. He also urged the 6 million people eligible for the vaccine, but has not even received the first dose, to come forward.

 

However, 80% vaccination rate isn’t a guarantee that a country would not see a new wave of Covid-19 again. Singapore has more that 80% inoculation rate, yet the country saw record daily Covid infections. Israel, with a 62.4% vaccination rate, has seen its infections plunged to 3-digit today from 5-digit in Sept this year. Besides vaccine hesitancy, another factor that creates havoc is waning immunity.

 

In a large-scale Israeli study last month, it was found that a third booster shot was 92% effective in preventing serious illness compared to those who received only two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Coronavirus vaccine. So far, over 4 million out of roughly 9.5 million people in Israel have received their third vaccine dose, a benchmark that other countries struggle to keep up.

In comparison, while both Germany and Israel have roughly the same rate of people given two doses of Covid vaccine, Israel’s population who has received a third dose is more than 42% whereas only 4% of Germans got their third dose. To make matters worse, some German states have ditched the requirement to wear face masks, even for children in schools.

 

That explains why Spain, once the epicentre of Covid in Europe, has been able to manage the risk. It has vaccinated 80% of its population, and while face masks are no longer mandatory outdoors, many people still wear them. Hence, getting immunized is just part of the solution. You still need to get a booster shot, avoid crowds and wear your mask.

 

Essentially, the spike in infections is a combination of two factors – human behaviour and the amount of immunity in the population. Dr Simon Clarke from the University of Reading said – “When the circumstances are wrong and infection is just more possible you can expect numbers to start climbing and more socialising and mixing indoors means there’s more opportunity for transmission, even in vaccinated individuals.”

The reopening of borders and premature lifting of Covid restrictions or lockdowns, allowing people to travel without restrictions (even within a country) could be the recipe for disaster in a country without sufficient amount of immunity. WHO’s Europe director, Dr. Hans Kluge, has warned that if more actions weren’t taken to stop Covid-19, Europe could see another 500,000 deaths by February.

 

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November 15th, 2021 by financetwitter

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