By now, it’s safe to say that the fragile and desperate backdoor government of Perikatan Nasional under Muhyiddin regime will most likely lift the current interstate travel restriction in May. This is to allow the Malay Muslims in the country to return to their hometown, otherwise known as “balik kampung” for Hari Raya Aidilfitri, which is expected to fall on May 13, 2021.

 

Last year, Mr Muhyiddin Yassin betrayed his own legitimately and democratically-elected multiracial government of Pakatan Harapan. After he seized power and formed the Malay-centric Perikatan Nasional government with opposition UMNO and PAS, the country was locked down due to Coronavirus. As a result, the Malays were unable to travel interstate for Hari Raya.

 

This year, the backdoor premier, who depends entirely on the Malay vote bank for re-election in the next 15th General Election, will have no choice but to make the largest ethnic happy. It would be political suicide if the Malays are again denied the “balik kampung” tradition this year. It was not a coincidence the Coronavirus cases suddenly dropped after the Chinese New Year festival.

There were 3,318 new cases of Covid-19 on 12 Feb, the first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year this year. But by March 6, Malaysia’s daily new cases dropped below the 2,000 mark for the first time since it skyrocketed to above that milestone on Jan 4. So, for 2 months ( January 4 – March 6), the country recorded between 2,000 and 6,000 new cases daily, before dropping like a rock.

 

Conveniently, on 12 Jan, just days after hitting more than 2,000 cases daily, Muhyiddin dramatically declared a State of Emergency. And coincidentally on the same day, the prime minister officially lost his legitimacy after the withdrawal of support from some of UMNO ally MPs. It also came one day after the government announced the second MCO lockdown.

 

Supposedly to be effective from Jan 13 to 26, 2021, the MCO (movement control order) 2.0 was later extended until Feb 4. Interestingly, on Jan 13, the country recorded 2,985 Covid-19 new cases. But 14 days later, the health ministry reported a deterioration of 3,585 new cases. Worse, the country did not see a single day that new cases drop to below 3,000.

That alone proved that the pandemic had gotten worse – not better – despite the MCO 2.0 lockdown. In the same breath, it also proved that the Proclamation of Emergency announced by the backdoor prime minister has been nothing but a political gimmick to cling to power, despite the regime’s false claims that the emergency was necessary to fight the virus.

 

After the declaration of a state of emergency, a convenient tool to suspend the Parliament to prevent any attempt to topple him, the prime minister took pains to explain to all and sundry that there will be no curfews or military rule. He also assured that civilian government will continue to function. Investors were told that it’s business as usual. But investors were not convinced at all.

 

Foreign investors were fleeing Malaysia thanks to increasingly unstable politics, which climaxed in January when Muhyiddin resorted to emergency powers after losing his majority in Parliament, the first to do so in Malaysia’s history. Inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) into Malaysia stunningly dropped by 68% from to just US$2.5 billion (RM10.1 billion) in 2020 – the worst drop in the region.

Following the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) damaging and humiliating reports in late Jan, the government was under pressure to scrap the MCO 2.0, of which every one ridiculed and mocked as inefficient and irrelevant. Hence, beginning early Feb, the Covid-19 new cases miraculously started to drop from more than 4,000 daily cases to below 3,000.

 

Another factor why the number of new cases has been dropping since early Feb was the deliberate attempt to reduce testing. To artificially suppress daily cases, the health ministry issued a new order – only test those with Coronavirus symptoms. Essentially, those identified as close contacts to Covid-19 positive patients will no longer be tested.

 

The new directives from Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah also said only a number of samples would be taken in terms of contact tracing involving a cluster. The Health Ministry argued that it would suffice to take 20 samples if the number of exposed people in the cluster is less than 50. And if the number exceeds 50, then the ministry would take 30 samples, or 10%, whichever is lower.

The joke on the street is that only 4D number punters are excitedly waiting for the new cases announced daily by the health ministry. Very few believe the government’s numbers. In fact, people on the ground think the real number of infections is twice the official number announced. Otherwise, why the health ministry has refused to share the raw data ever since the first week of October 2020?

 

But the manipulation of data had just begun. On Feb 24, the King suddenly decreed that Parliament can convene despite the State of Emergency. Again, the illegitimate government was under pressure to reopen the Parliament as it was as clear as crystal that nobody believes the emergency rule was meant to combat the pandemic from the beginning.

 

And conveniently again, on March 6, just a week after the monarch said Parliament can meet, Malaysia’s daily new cases dropped below the 2,000 mark for the first time. Today, Coronavirus daily new cases are slightly more than 1,000, and appear to be waiting for an “instruction” to fall below the 1,000-mark, which is very likely to happen next month.

It’s predicted that between now and April 13, when the fasting month of Ramadan is scheduled to start, the Covid-19 daily new cases could drop to between 900 and 600. Thereafter, from April 13 to May 13, before the Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebration starts, the health ministry would probably announce a further drop of between 600 to 300 new cases. This will provide justifications to allow interstate travel.

 

In fact, the script of the drama has already been prepared. Early this month (March 5), Senior Minister “Turtle Egg” Ismail Sabri dropped the biggest hint that Malay Muslims can look forward to a very happy Hari Raya festival this year. He said – “Last year, we did not return to celebrate Raya. It was a disappointment. Let’s pray that we can ‘balik kampung’ for Aidilfitri this year”.

 

The only reason the senior minister dares to give hopes that people could finally return to hometown is because he knew it will happen. And the only reason he knew is because data could be manipulated. It would be a disaster and dumb to create a false impression when the prime minister desperately needs all the Malay votes he could get to lead his Perikatan Nasional coalition in the election.

It was hoped that the strategy of making the Malay voters happy would translate to support for Muhyiddin, whose PPBM (Bersatu) political party is facing the prospect of a total annihilation due to internal civil war with the United Malays National Organization. The prime minister has effectively lost the support of non-Malay voters after his act of treachery last year.

 

In addition, it’s increasingly difficult to explain to the people why the government has failed to tackle the pandemic after a year. The current third wave of Coronavirus, which was triggered last year in Sept 2020 after the power-hungry Muhyiddin launched his second coup to grab Sabah state, is also one of the “longest” Covid-19 waves in the world.

 

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March 22nd, 2021 by financetwitter

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