At least 3 new polls show Brexit – British Exit – could succeed on June 23 after all. An online survey by ICM shows 48% wanted to leave European Union as opposed to 43% who don’t. Pollster YouGov found “Leave” on 45%, with “Remain” on 41%. Meanwhile, TNS registers 43% Britons preferred “Out” as compared to 41% who chose “In”.

There were a number of polls earlier that showed Brexit was winning. And that has spooked the British currency, sending the pound tumbling to 3-week lows against the U.S. dollar. The weakening of British pound could be a natural reaction but already, there’re rumours that the currency was deliberately weakened to spread fear on the consequences of a Brexit victory.

 

The message pro-EU wants to deliver is quite simple. If the British votes for Brexit on June 23, the UK economy will crash. UK businesses could face a £34 billion (US$49.3 billion; RM200.6 billion) export tax if we leave – trumpets the “Remain” camp. However, in an eventuality that Britons vote to leave EU, the pro-EU has a secret weapon.

Pro-EU MPs are now plotting to keep Britain in the European Union, even if anti-EU voters successfully win the referendum. These pro-EU MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit. There is a pro-EU majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.

 

Ministers have leaked to the BBC – British Broadcasting Corporation – they expect pro-EU MPs to conduct what one called a “reverse Maastricht” process – a reference to the long parliamentary campaign fought by Tory euro sceptic MPs in the 1990s against legislation deepening EU integration. So, how would this plot works?

According to the plot hatched by the pro-EU MPs, a challenge would be put to the Brexit MPs. Because the Leave campaign has refused, or at least hasn’t proposed an acceptable alternative, to spell out what trading relationship it wants the UK to have with the EU in the future, the UK will continue to stay in EU.

 

As such, a post-Brexit government could not claim it had a popular mandate for a particular model, even if they win the referendum for Brexit. In other words, a victorious pro-Brexit government would not be able to move forward because they don’t have the majority in parliament, since the majority belongs to anti-Brexit.

Many pro-Leave campaigners support a limited free trade relationship with the EU, based on the deal about to be signed between Canada and the EU. As a trade-off, one alternative option put forward by pro-EU MPs would be for the UK to stay part of the single market by continuing its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).

 

Also known by some as the “Norway model”, a post-Brexit UK government would be able to enjoy access to the single market without having to agree agriculture or fishing quotas, to cooperate on justice or foreign affairs, or be a member of the euro zone or the Schengen border-free arrangement.

Still, as a member of EEA, a post-Brexit UK government would still need to make a contribution to the EU budget although it would be significantly lesser than what the British is paying now. UK also has to accept the free movement of people, and having little ability to influence EU rules.

 

It would be a different story if the referendum shows overwhelming votes from Britons for Brexit. David Cameron administration cannot ignore the wishes of the voters and would probably soften its stance and more willing to discuss with minority pro-Brexit MPs for a less destructive solution.

The dirty plot therefore, may or may not work depending on how eager the Britons want to get out of European Union. Cameron and his minions still need the votes come next general election, so they would not play with fire if substantial majority votes for Brexit. For now, what pro-EU can do is to keep the scaremongering going.

 

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June 7th, 2016 by financetwitter

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