The 10 Lessons from Galas and Batu Sapi

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Nov 05 2010
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We wrote how Najib’s administration period could be shorter than Abdullah Badawi, the ex-PM whose downfall was architected by Najib and another ex-PM, Mahathir. FinanceTwitter also wrote that while Najib is the de-facto Prime Minister, he has to get the blessing from his wife, Rosmah Mansor, because both admitted they’re tag-team and operate in a partnership model. Even Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew recognised the Najib Rosmah Sdn Bhd partnership in running the country.

Now that ruling government Barisan Nasional wins both Batu Sapi and Galas by-elections, the double victory could spark more interesting chapters moving forward.  We predicted Najib would most likely call for a snap election within the 6 to 9 months and that’s precisely what could happen. At the same time ex-PM Mahathir who is still pulling the strings from behind the curtain has activated the racial cards through controversial Perkasa and he is expected to switch into full gear soon.

Batu Sapi by-Election Result 

It’s not known if Najib is really down with chicken-pox or was hiding from exposing himself in the just concluded Batu Sapi and Galas by-election. It’s not known if this is a strategy by Mahathir to show Najib that his old method still works in winning both by-elections using Deputy PM Muhyiddin as his proxy in running the election machineries. It’s not known if opposition especially PAS deliberately let Tengku Razaleigh, a well respected figure sent by Najib to help wrest Galas seat, win so that Razaleigh (hopefully) can “pressure” federal government in Kelantan’s oil royalty demand.

Of course it’s also not known if opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has deliberately created 3-way contest in Batu Sapi to create smoke screen that Najib administration has done wonders and now every Tom, Dick and his dog has swing their supports back to the ruling government in a big wave. What better way than to create a signal that now is the best time to call for a snap election or never, while Anwar can still walk around the street instead of reading books behind bars over his sodomy’s case?

But it’s a fact from this double victory that Muhyiddin has stolen the thunder from his boss Najib. Most importantly Mahathir can proudly beat his chest justifying his proxy Perkasa did not scare the non-Malay ethnic away judging from the by-elections’ result. Instead the racist Perkasa has brought back Malay votes to Barisan Nasional. And if Najib Rosmah Sdn Bhd dares to deviate an inch away from the old man’s wish, the same fate that has fallen on Abdullah Badawi would happen to Najib. And Muhyiddin will gladly take over from Najib Razak as the next PM.

 election voting

Furthermore if you believe in fortune telling you won’t want to write off the old man Mahathir, at least not yet. The old fox can easily live up to 88 years of age, sufficient time to eject Najib Razak if the PM doesn’t follow instruction from the dictator. But there’re lessons to be learnt from both by-elections, in case the oppositions still thought they’re invincible and could march towards Putrajaya in the next general election.

1) Lesson-1: Ruling government Barisan Nasional will always has upper hand in terms of financial, machineries, medias, election commission, police and whatnot.

2) Lesson-2: Money will always change hands so do not act as if the opposition didn’t expect brown-envelopes containing money for fence-sitter or phantom voters to happen.

3) Lesson-3: Phantom voters will always appear out of nowhere so there’s nothing to shout about voters who are supposed to be 70+ years old but appear to be 40 years younger. You haven’t seen 120 years old yet dude.

4) Lesson-4: The rural voters especially from poor area can always be bought with money, at least majority of them. Who cares about corruption of billions of dollars in mega projects when RM250 can immediately bring food to the table? Free rice and instant noodles are better than promise of change.

5) Lesson-5: The rural voters are still living with the master-slave mindset. National issues are aliens to them. They believe as slaves they must obey the master and the master cannot do wrong. Empty promises and sloganeering still works like a charm.

6) Lesson-6: Election Commission will always come out with creative by-election date as they can accurately calculate when the young voters would not turn up for voting, while maintaining high turn-up. Amazing huh?

7) Lesson-7: Opposition may not win as easily in Sabah and Sarawak but they’ll surely lose badly in 3-corners fight. It can only engage in a one-to-one fight unless the third candidate is an independent who has nothing better to do.

8 ) Lesson-8: Opposition parties namely PKR, DAP and PAS have to stay united and seen as a united party so that people can rely on such alternative otherwise voters would vote for the united Barisan Nasional.

9) Lesson-9: Opposition should check their arrogance as though their small victory in the 2008 general election was God-given and the voters will vote them in again regardless. Arrogance breeds over-confidence which will leads to disasters.

10) Lesson-10: Opposition parties from Peninsular and East Malaysia need to go back to the drawing board as it seems voters from East Malaysia cannot be tamed so easily. Besides working together and stay united, they have uphill task in swinging the stubborn voters who have been voting tirelessly for Barisan Nasional.

It seems the writing is on the wall that Sabah and Sarawak are not an easy catch for the opposition. They don’t call both states Barisan Nasional’s “Fixed Deposit” for no apparent reason. Obviously the mentality of Peninsular and East Malaysia is so different, thanks to the ruling government in keeping them as poor as possible.   

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