China has so far refused to be dragged into the Ukraine War. However, the economic powerhouse has been accused by the West of supporting the Russian simply because Beijing repeatedly declines to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and Western logic is that “you are either with us – or against us”. You can’t choose the middle ground.

 

After one year of war, Vladimir Putin is still alive and kicking, despite Western media’s hard work to build the narrative that the Russian supremo was dying of cancer, hiding in caves and whatnot. And after months of spreading lies that the Kremlin was running out of missiles, ammunitions, fighter jets, tanks and soldiers, Russia continues to rain missiles and suicide drones on Ukraine.

 

At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi that Washington believed China is seriously considering supplying arms to Russia. Mr Blinken has warned Mr Wang that such assistance – weapons and ammunition – would invite serious consequences on the relationship between both nations.

According to Russian trade data reported by the Wall Street Journal, China has already provided military aid to Russia. Chinese defence companies were said to have shipped navigation equipment and parts essential to fighter jets as well as other military technology equipment to Russia. But goods like semiconductors can also be used on both civilian and military equipment.

 

Since the start of the Ukraine War, more than 84,000 shipments from China to Russia have been conducted. Other parts included radar, infrared cameras, jammers and high-tech parts for Russian Su-35 fighter jets and MIL Mi-17 helicopters. Beijing, however, said its exports to Russia are always in compliance with its domestic laws and regulations.

 

At the same time, China has also hit back at the U.S., telling Washington to stay out of its relationship with Moscow. Foreign Ministry Wang Wenbin said – “The U.S. is not qualified to give orders to China. We will never accept U.S. criticism, even coercion and pressure to China-Russia relationships. China’s position on Ukraine can be simply put as promoting peace talks.”

Even if Beijing is providing “lethal” military assistance, there’s nothing wrong, not that Washington can do anything about it. Exactly why can’t China sells “parts” to Russia when the U.S. and its NATO allies have been openly sending billions of dollars of ammunitions, missiles, defence systems, tanks and even potentially fighter jets to Ukraine in the Americans’ proxy war against Russia?

 

The funny thing is that the U.S. actually categorizes the assistance as “non-lethal” military aid. If such non-lethal equipment could change the outcome of Ukraine War, then something is terribly wrong with the military superpower’s strategy to defeat Putin. The U.S. should go back to the drawing board instead of lecturing China who it can and cannot befriend and what it can and cannot sell, as if China is the American colony.

 

The fact that the United States was furiously mad over China’s rhetorical support for Russia with its refusal to condemn Putin, only to go ballistic now over China’s physical support for Russia with provision of military assistance shows not only the U.S.’ desperation, but also the lack of confidence in winning the Ukraine War. And it’s not hard to understand why the U.S. is so upset.

Days after the invasion of Ukraine, the White House and Pentagon thought Putin could be easily brought down if the U.S. froze its US$630 billion of foreign reserves – effectively emptying its coffers critical to support the rubles, which would trigger the collapse of the Russian currency. The economic and financial sanctions on the Kremlin would banish big Russian banks from SWIFT and cripple its economy.

 

But the Washington-led economic war on Moscow has failed spectacularly. The ruble has become the world’s best performing currency. Russia’s economy contracted by 2.1% last year, shrinking less than the World Bank’s prediction of a contraction of 11.2%. Net exports jumped to 12.8% from 9.3% thanks to prices of exported fuel and energy products. Its account surplus actually hit a record high in 2022.

 

While the Russian government estimated the 2023 economy would decline 0.8%, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) believes the economy could grow by 0.3%. Crucially, the economic war unleashed by Biden administration has boomeranged and hit the Western nations (and the world) instead. Energy prices have skyrocketed in Europe, while Americans have struggled with the decades-high inflation.

Because the U.S. was afraid to send its troops to fight the Russians, it depends on sanctions to give the impression that the American government – the Sheriff of planet Earth – is doing something between war and nothing. But how could the sanctions work in Russia if history has shown similar embargoes slapped on North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela and Syria had failed to work?

 

According to Scott Ritter, former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer, Ukraine cannot win this war and it’s purely “fantasy” to think it could. Despite Western media reports that Russia was losing the war and had to withdraw from its positions such as Kherson, the truth is Moscow was strategically trading territories for Russian lives, holding to the strong points to defend it to the last man.

 

Russians were more than happy to withdraw, trade territory, save lives, consolidate their defensive positions while inflicting maximum damage to the Ukrainian forces. While consolidating, Putin reinforces its troops with reservists and reorganizes fresh combat units to optimize operational capacity. The U.S. has underestimated Russian’s soft approach as weakness.

Moscow has the firepower, but wanted to reduce civilian casualties and minimize damages to civilian infrastructure. But the objective of minimizing civilian infrastructure was over after the West sent more lethal weapons to Ukraine. The raining missiles on Ukraine’s strategic infrastructures such as the power plants was just a demonstration that Russia can easily crush Ukraine if it wanted to.

 

The Russians aren’t suffering as much as the U.S. had hoped. On the contrary, the Americans, Europeans and Ukrainians are suffering more – both economically and financially. Running out of diesel fuel was a humiliation that none of the rich and powerful G7 nations should face. Putin has shown that he knew more than the West about weaponizing energy.

 

The U.S. has given away taxpayers’ money to the tune of US$113 billion in weaponry and financial aid to Ukraine, approaching the US$146 billion spent in 20 years for military and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. Yet, the results are nowhere near Washington’s objective of defeating the Russians, let alone the boastful goal of overthrowing Vladimir Putin.

An Associated Press poll in late January 2023 showed that only 48% of U.S. adults say they favour the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, a drop from 60% back in May 2022. If China decides to supply non-lethal and lethal weapons to Russia, it will certainly be a “game changer”. That’s why Washington pre-emptively told the world how China is planning to join the evil Russia.

 

If indeed the Kremlin was losing the war as fantasized by the West, Washington should not be excessively worried about the Chinese weapons. Are you saying the entire U.S. and NATO is no match for the so-called inferior Chinese military and weapons? Beijing knew the risks of arming Moscow. But it also understood the bigger risk if Russia is to lose in Ukraine – politically or militarily.

 

Once Russia is defeated, the U.S.’ next target would be China. But if the Chinese help the Russians to win the war decisively, it will inflict a strategic defeat on the United States. There are many ways to skin a cat. To prevent sanctions, China can always insist it would not send arms, but at the same time says political, trade and military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing will continue.

In the event the U.S. hastily imposed economic and financial sanctions on China, it would trigger a bigger problem than the current inflation and recession, which the U.S. would get the blames. Even if the senile President Joe Biden proceeds with the sanctions, do you think the European Union, after suffering excruciating energy and economic pains, will blindly support the idea of adding fuel to the fire?

 

China could supply weapons and drones to Russia via state-controlled companies or North Korea or Belarus or even to the Wagner Group rather than directly to the Kremlin. The U.S. has to prove that those weapons were for Putin. Beijing can always deny, which American allies like the European Union would gladly accept in order not to escalate the existing conflicts.

 

It’s not coincidence that Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a close ally of Putin, will visit Beijing this week. Belarus has allowed its territory to be used as a staging ground for Putin’s “special military operation” against Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022. His visit comes at a time when Washington warns Beijing against providing military aid to Russia.

But here’s the biggest headache for the U.S. – it risks pushing China and Russia to an official military partnership. China, a superpower, is hungry for raw commodities and resources like oil and gas to power its economic engines – Russia has tonnes of them. Russia, a military prowess, is hungry for investments to keep its economy running – China has tonnes of money.

 

Now, if Russia and China joined forces, they will be incredibly powerful. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), lacking major combat experience, can depend on Russian. Last December, both nations stepped up military cooperation in yet another joint exercise in the East China Sea. Heck, they have even started “sharing a toolkit” of approaches and strategies to undermine NATO.

 

More importantly, like the U.S., China too is eager to test its military technologies in real war. Thanks to comedian Zelensky, Ukraine provides a perfect testing ground for Chinese new weapons. Iranian too was testing its capability when it gladly agreed to supply drones to Russia. Ukraine is the guinea pig for weapon manufacturers to test, tweak, enhance, and upgrade untested weapon technology.

The clueless U.S. has no idea that it sabotaged its own interests by declaring a trade war with China and provoking the Chinese by sending weapons, troops and warmongers to Taiwan. Now, Joe Biden, proud of shooting down a harmless balloon with a US$400,000 missile, has the cheek to tell Xi Jinping to severe his friendship with Vladimir Putin – even ordering Beijing not to sell any weapons to Moscow.

 

If you think Iran’s supply of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones to Russia was bad enough to Ukraine, wait till you see the Chinese drones and precision missiles. The arrogant U.S., Ukraine and NATO should seriously consider the peace plan proposed by China. The war is horrible. The average life expectancy of a front-line soldier in eastern Ukraine is just “4 hours”, according to a former U.S. marine fighting there.

 

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February 27th, 2023 by financetwitter

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