Dubai is probably the best yardstick to measure the economy of the Gulf region; at least Dubai was the most prosperous city within the region. People might not know where Oman is but they can’t miss Dubai. For years people have been flocking to this city hunting for their first pot of gold. As with the normal cycle property market was booming with tons of first-time speculators snapping up properties as if they were buying tiramisu cakes. Money was stretched to the limit in order to buy maximum number of properties possible. These properties would then be rented out without much problem, thanks to the booming economy, and thus generating positive cash-flow. It was a no-brainer method to generate wealth until now.
Now that the property bubble has burst, thanks to global economy recession, these novice speculators are selling their once-cash-cow to anybody at fire-sale discount. Effectively most of Malaysian construction companies were crying as projects agreed got hold or cancelled. Gamuda Berhad (KLSE: GAMUDA, stock-code 5398), the country’s largest construction and engineering with interests in construction, water, toll and property development is feeling the heat (7% of Gamuda’s outstanding order book comes from the Gulf region) after the WCT Berhad and Meydan LCC joint venture to build a RM4.6 billion race-course in Dubai was cancelled. Gamuda generated investors’ interest recently when the founder and Managing Director Lin Yun Ling cashed-out early 2008 sending the stock price to the south.
Another interesting fact about Gamuda – the largest shareholder is also the second richest woman on the 2008 Forbes 40 Richest Malaysians at #35 spot. She is Raja Datuk Seri Eleena Raja Azlan Shah, the daughter of the Sultan of Perak, Raja Azlan Shah. She was worth RM773 Million ($228 Million) at #25 spot in 2007’s 40 Richest Malaysians but this figure dropped to RM510 Million ($150 Million) in 2008 at #35 spot. Based on today’s stock price of RM1.91 a share her fortune is only at RM287.46 million based on her remaining stake of 7.5% in Gamuda via Generasi Setia (M) Sdn Berhad. Naturally when his father refused to dissolve the state assembly for a fresh election various rumors and speculations began its circulation.
Malaysian politics is perhaps the dirtiest but you can’t blame the public to have a perception that the federal government was twisting the arms of the Sultan (silly assumption, is it not?). However on the business perspective you do not need to wake Einstein up from his grave to tell you that Gamuda is basically at the mercy of the Federal government. With water taps closed by the federal government to three of the most developed states, Selangor, Perak and Penang, Gamuda is screaming for projects. Certainly the nation has the money. In fact the country is flushed with more money than before the Mar 2008 general election simply because the federal government does not know where to pump the money to since the most developed states such as Selangor, Perak (was) and Penang are controlled by opposition parties.
PM-in-waiting Najib Razak is set to take over the premiership end of Mar 2009 so expect more goodies and good news (lower electricity tariff soon?). The first RM7 billion stimulus package may have been “well spent” into certain pockets already. Najib’s mentor, former dictator Mahathir, has hinted that the second stimulus package should be about RM35 billion or 5% of the country’s GDP (gross domestic product) so you can expect the figure to be announced by Najib. Whether this whopping RM35 billion will go into stock market or projects everyone is drooling for a piece of the cake – including Gamuda. Hmm, Najib may be right after all that the country may not enter recession. So, is it good time to accumulate some Gamuda shares *grin*?
Anyway let’s imagine (it’s Friday dude) a conspiracy theory and this Perak crisis is just the tip of an iceberg. Let’s assume Anwar has the number to take over the federal government but at the same time he’s also aware that to do so could backfire badly. He needs to start the ball-rolling and he announced about the defection, 916 and so forth. After Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu, he knew Najib is desperate for trophies so the plot was to sacrifice Perak. He accepted the bait (was it?) offered by Najib with this fella Nasarudin. A good strategy to test water (effect of defections) and to flush out traitors within PKR, Perak has to fall to BN. Now Najib has gotten Perak State as the trophy to show off during the coming UMNO election and claimed it was Anwar who started the defection plan and he simply finished it. The next episode will see that Anwar will snatch the federal government with the readied defectors while screaming “Najib started the battle so I’m just finishing the war”. What a wet dream!
Other Articles That May Interest You …
- Experience the Real Panic in Persian Gulf Slowdown
- More data coming, more volatility, lesser ammunition left
- Gamuda and IJM Corp on their way to Merge soon?
- The Richest Malaysians, Robert Kuok scored the perfect 10
- Litrak Capital Repayment, a nice way to suck money out
- Gamuda’s Game-Over reveals Dark Side of Economy?
- Gamuda tumbled, opportunity to Buy or reason to Sell?
- From desert to Tourism and Property Magnet
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February 6th, 2009 by financetwitter
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Comments
i hope i would be paid by 20th century fox when they make the next blockbuster based on my imagination 🙂
then i would make millions, if not billions without the need to be labelled “the jumping frog” …
it will make me climax if that happens.
how true if Anwar will to use this mother of all justifications for the hoppers to his side!
Razaleigh, what are you waiting for?
As a Perakian, I am disgusted with what is happening. I am seething…and if you are like me lost for words at the shenanigan in the silver state and unable to restraint your anger but still want to stay sane, you can swear and still stay saintly! This blog has a link in how to curse your enemies without losing your cool!
http://thehingeblogs.blogspot.com/2009/02/verbal-blastings.html
Javanese (Malay) values are not compatible with Islamic values. The informed and educated know this well. So does PAS, though they will not admit it openly.
Related info:
http://margeemar.blogspot.com/2009/02/nizar-derhaka-atau-sultan-yang-abaikan.html
http://scottthong.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/michael-chick-who-are-the-malays-and-how-to-unite-them/
Maybe Indonesia should invade the fake country called Malaysia, throw out the government and corrupted system including the monarchy, and call it the straits settlements of various races and religions from all over the world, especially Asia.
We would be more developed, diverse, strong and cosmo compared to Australia if the British had done a HK on us.
The current system, rules, constitution and rukun negara were just put in place by UMNO to prolong their (fake and manipulative concept of) Malay Elite dominance, which is in actuality only for UMNOputra dominance; and to allow their divide and conquer tactics and methods to fester and disunite.
Ketuanan UMNO boleh! People deserve the government they get! Time for the people to rise and rebel!
Hi guys!
I would like to write about the Raja Muda of Perak, Raja Nazrin and the Sultan of Perak, Sultan Azlan Shah.
Before the fall of the Perak State government, many people wrote and admired the Sultan and Raja Muda for their stand on many things. Raja Nazrin has said we should RESPECT THE CONSTITUTION and THE SPIRIT OF THE CONSTITUTION and THE SPIRIT OF THE AGREEMENT. This is something of a FARCE as what many people don’t know is that Raja Nazrin is NOT THE RIGHT Raja Muda of Perak!
In Perak, the son is NOT the automatic number 2 unlike the other states. Only Negeri Sembilan and Perak differs from the other states. There are 7 Raja Bergelar in Perak. They are The Sultan, The Raja Muda, Raja Di Hilir, Raja Kecil Besar, Raja Kecil Sulong, Raja Kecil Tengah and the most junior Raja Kecil Bongsu. This list is from the most senior to junior in the right order. This rotation was AGREED upon since the very beginning. THERE WAS AN AGREEMENT AMONG THE FAMILIES.
More than 20 years ago, the late Raja Muda of Perak passed on during Sultan Azlan’s tenure. Sultan Azlan had just been Sultan for a few years. If Sultan Azlan RESPECTED THE SPIRIT OF THE AGREEMENT between the Perak Royal Families, Sultan Azlan would not promote Raja Nazrin to be Raja Muda! The right candidate was the Raja Di Hilir at that time. But Raja Nazrin came from out of the blue to be Raja Muda! He passed more senior family members who were in line to the throne. They were the families of the late Sultan Abd Aziz and Sultan Idris. Sultan Idris was the Sultan before Sultan Azlan. This was the same scenario in a way to Negeri Sembilan. Tunku Laxamana was acting as number 2 for many years instead of his cousin the Tengku Besar Seri Menanti who was the RIGHT NUMBER 2! But as we all know recently the right person, Tengku Besar Seri Menanti was promoted to be Yam Tuan Negeri, Tuanku Muhriz.
To the supporters of Sultan Azlan, I would like to remind you that when Sultan Idris was ruling, the Raja Muda of Perak seat fell vacant due to the death of the Raja Muda of Perak at that time, Raja Muda Musa bin Sultan Abd Aziz. Sultan Idris DID NOT promote his son to be Raja Muda. He allowed the right rotation to continue. The son had to be promoted from the bottom. He did not infringe on the rights of his cousin and nephew, and one of them was Raja Azlan Shah who is now the Sultan. If Sultan Idris did the SAME THING then, Sultan Azlan WILL NEVER BE SULTAN!
Sultan Azlan and Raja Nazrin used underhanded tactics to put Raja Nazrin as Raja Muda. If the proper rotation was followed, Raja Nazrin will only be Raja Kecil Besar or Raja Kecil Sulong at best. This is only 4th or 5th in rank but now, with what happened more that 20 years ago, Raja Nazrin is number 2! What happened shocked me because I expected better from a retired TOP JUDGE OF MALAYSIA. The AGREEMENT ON THE ROTATION is PART OF THE PERAK CONSTITUTION. So how would I buy what Raja Nazrin is saying with great publicity that we MUST RESPECT THE CONSTITUTION AND SPIRIT OF THE CONSTITUTION?
I hope one day the right Raja Muda of Perak and the the right Menteri Besar will serve the Perak State. As a Perakian, this is only right.
It took Tuanku Muhriz 46 years to regain his seat. Hope Perak will do the same. Ironic that Raja Nazrin talks about his role as a SERVING ROYAL when THE SEAT IS NOT HIS!
Wrong conclusion…they underestimated poor ignorant Joe Public….the kind who just works his butt out in Bolehland for a meagre income to feed his family, send his children to school, pay his car, house, etc. Unfortunately Joe Public got wiser. He went to school, even got a degree and guess what else …doesn’t care two hoots for blood sucking monarchies nor politicians with their convoluted agreements with two bit crooked Chinaman. In short he is tired of being had. He just wants a decent life and decent wage and go to his grave a peaceful and happy man. Joe Public’s ambition is brutally annoying currently the Perak Sultanate. He identifies himself with Anwar, Hadi Awang and Lim Kit Siang. And he is not about to give up.
Raja Eleena couldn’t argue a case properly when she was with Skrine and co. She got there through connections. She got rich by connections. She continued to get rich by sleeping with the right husband. Joe Public sees this as her good luck. But does not approve her lifestyle nor would he want his daughter to become rich this way. He wants his daughter to be God fearing and be useful to society as what generally happens in a Republic.
Joe public has now decided that he had heard and seen enough. Conspiracy theories are complicated. Azlan’s Gamuda, Najib’s CIMB, Rafiah’s APs, Mahathir’s MISC, Gnanalingam’s West Port, Taib’s RHB, Liong Sik’s PKFZ, Sharifudin’s Concorde, Negri’s Antah, etc. Nobody works for a living anymore. Joe public wants all these middlemen out. He doesn’t want all these pirates to janitor him around. He wants a piece of the pie because he feels he has worked hard for it and it should be his birthright after 51 years. He feels his father’s sacrifice in the war was for the greater good of the country. Not for some conniving two bit Royalty to keep throwing dog food to him. No. That was the message Joe sent out on 8/3/08. And that will be the message he will send to Najib, Azlan and the second, illegitimate MB. It’s over. The buck stops here. Game over. The whole lot would do well to get lost before unfortunate events befall them.
how right you are. govt set up GLC and implement policies and projects for these entities to take on. shareholders among them are ministers or party members or even linked to the party itself. profits goes back to the party as long as the govt is still in control. just continue building and building and the money keeps circling around at the same source. while some slipped out for the common rakyat to enjoy so that they don’t complain, more will go in from personal and corporate taxes. afterall, we are feeding them for the last 52 years with our taxes.
Thank you for filling in a few blanks, Stocktube. Very helpful indeed in fleshing out the overall scenario! I’ve linked this post to a report on the protest at the palace gates.
Yes, in Dubai now some Malaysian companies already in big trouble.. anyway in this issue, we may say Rakyat Murka, Sultan derhaka
im sort of thinking about the same thing. Perak is just another battlefront. Losing a battle to win the war. So BN better watch out its not over yet.
stocktube,
are you aware of this article been posted in Msia2day ?
http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/17790/84/
Excellent!
OK lah… assume.. PR screwed their own in PERAK state.. as stated by RPK in “What more to say? ” article.
Lets also say the PERAK SULTAN made decision based on harmony and more for the people of PERAK state as he is regarded one of the best or maybe the best ruler in MALAYSIA , since he is the former LORD PRESIDENT.
MY QUESTION IS : Why in the FARK he meet NAJIS in istana ?
Najis is not ADUN of any PERAK state. !!!!. This is about PERAK state goverment. Only ADUN PERAK or rakyat residing in PERAK state can meet or discuss about PERAK state gomen with state ruler.
The Former LORD PRESIDENT dont know about this simple law ahhh?
Stupid FARKING …. BULL S.H.I.T !!!!!!
Jika saya tidak silap, pemilihan Sultan di Perak sebelum ini adalah melalui proses penggiliran. Walaubagaimanpun, Sultan Azlan Shah telah menukar sistem tersebut dan menjadikan posisi Sultan sebagai hak mutlak keluarga beliau. Adakah ini telah digunakan oleh BN untuk memeras ugut beliau?
Hi everyone,
Thank you for all the news.It’s really shocking that what is going on in our country.Shame,shame and shame is my only words to those greedy ones
Keep it up brothers and sisters and God bless
Anyone interested in making movies using the script above..!!! Full of suspense and damm thrilling !!!
Good one here. Your imagination this time is good enough (if not better *grin*) to serve as a plot in a John Grisham thriller novel. Cheers