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Option Trading – Will APPLE Make Me Money Again?



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Jan 16 2007
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The earning season is here again and it’s time to make money investing stocks or trading option (depending on your trading strategy). Apple Inc. (Nasdaq : AAPL, stock) will be releasing its’ earning tomorrow, Wednesday 17-Jan-2007, after the bell. I don’t think this stock need any more introduction. This is a great stock with innovative products such as the famous iPod and the released of iPhone and TV set top box last week. Who doesn’t know Steve Jobs? He’s the lifeblood of Apple – his leadership is undisputable.

December is usually the strongest month when it comes to consumer electronics sales, and Apple saw strong demand for its iPod during the quarter. Apple said in December it is restating financial statements for 2004-2006 due to its stock-options investigation, and that an internal probe found no misconduct by current management.

Some of the analysis indicators for AAPL:

  • Wall Street consensus: 0.78
  • StockScouter rating: 10 out of 10
  • Whisper Number for this stock: 0.86
  • Smart-Estimate for this stock: 0.81
  • Schaeffer rating for this stock: 5 out of 10
  • Power Rating: 5 out of 10
  • Insider Trading (last 52 weeks): ($174.61M)
  • Option Trading: Apr 2007 90 Call
  • IV for Feb 2007 $90 Strike: 40.48%

Analysts, on average, are looking for earnings of 78 cents on sales of $6.42 billion, according to a Thomson Financial poll. Merrill Lynch analyst Richard Farmer sees Apple to posting higher results than what Wall Street is expecting – raised his outlook to earnings of 81 cents per share on sales of $6.5 billion. Based on data from the NPD Group, December is the best selling month for iPods, typically making up about 36 percent of the year’s business.

In summary I’m optimistic Apple will beat its’ earning again this time and hopefully it’ll gap-up and make some money for me. I’m still holding some calls which I invested prior to the Apple iPhone announcement. I think I need to ring the register today (I know I’ve said that before but the stock was simply too bullish and volatile that I was thinking of maximizing the profit).

# TIP: Consider trading option instead of stocks but remember to balance it with sufficient time-value, just in case, as the expectation for Apple to beat by huge margin is too high. Nevertheless with the buzz of iPhone, this fundamental stock should perform in medium to long-term.

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