#1 » 40% of Chinese small businesses either went bust or almost went bust during crisis
A report mentioned that just after 9 months China claimed its small business sector was surviving the global recession, new figures surprisingly shown that about a whopping 40% of them either failed or close to failing between Nov 2008 and Mar 2009. This is indeed a big headache to the Chinese government who was considering withdrawing the huge stimulus packages late 2010.
While the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported 20% of small businesses had crashed and another 20 per cent went “to the brink of bankruptcy” during the climax of the global financial crisis, Chen Naixiang (economist and director of the academy’s research center) also reported that most of the 20% businesses on the brink of failure have been revivied thanks largely to the recovering economy.
#2 » Buy Chinese stocks if you wish to finance Chinese government
China has three main stock exchanges – Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and of course Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Of course unlike Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange is still tighly controlled by the Chinese government. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have over 1,500 listed companies with combined total market capitalization of US$ 2,658.2 billion (2008) rivaling Hong Kong Stock Exchange (US$ 2,121.8 billion) as Asia’s second largest stock market behind the Tokyo Stock Exchange (US$ 3,925.6 billion).
However eight of the ten top largest stocks are state-controlled companies:
- PetroChina (RMB 3,656.20 billion)
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (RMB 1,417.93 billion)
- Sinopec (RMB 961.42 billion)
- Bank of China (RMB 894.42 billion)
- China Shenhua Energy Company (RMB 824.22 billion)
- China Life (RMB 667.39 billion)
- China Merchants Bank (RMB 352.74 billion)
- Ping An Insurance (RMB 272.53 billion)
- Bank of Communications (RMB 269.41 billion)
- China Pacific Insurance (RMB 256.64 billion)
#3 » China’s GDP may overtake U.S. as early as 2020
Deutsche Bank’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Jun Ma, told an investment conference in Hong Kong that China’s growth will be underpinned by a rapid expansion in emerging market economies, which will account for about 70% of global GDP growth in the coming decade. China will “massively invest” in these emerging economies using its nearly $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, extend its leverage by extending loans to the International Monetary Fund and allow the yuan to appreciate in preparation for the currency’s potential reserve status.
Jun Ma further added that by early 2020, China’S nominal GDP growth could surpass that of the United States within ten years, a period which will likely be accompanied by a gradual appreciation of the yuan. Ma also expect a final GDP recovery (quarter on quarter basis) to start by middle of 2010 (hopefully this fella is correct).
#4 » By 2025, China will have 10 New York-sized cities
According to a research done by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion, China is projected to have a staggering 40 billion square meters of floor space by the year 2025. In another words China will be constructing 20,000 to 50,000 new skyscrapers of which each will be more than 30 floors. This is equivalent to a mind-boggling 10 (ten) New York Cities.
Also by 2025, up to 170 cities in China could meet planning criteria for mass-transit systems – more than twice the current number in Europe. Additionally, China will have up to 5 billion square meters of road and up to 28,000 kilometers of metro rail. China will also need to construct between 700 and 900 Gigawatts of new coal-fired power between 2005 and 2025.
#5 » By 2030, China’s cities will add 350 million people, more than the entire U.S. population
From the same research done by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), it was projected that China’s urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to 926 million in 2025 – an increase of 350 million Chinese city dwellers which is larger than today’s United States entire population. By 2030, China’s urban population will reach 1 billion people.
Urban investment thus will reach over 24 trillion renminbi by 2025 or 93% of total Chinese fixed investment compared with about 79% in 2007. The urban consumption share of GDP will rise from 25% (or 3.9 trillion renminbi) in 2005 to 33% (or 32.7 trillion renminbi) by 2025. The township of Huaxi in the Yangtze River Delta is a great example of how the Chinese government embraced capitalism to lift 300 million people out of poverty during the last 3 decades.
From a farm community with bamboo huts and ox carts in the 1970s, Huaxi is now an industrial and commercial powerhouse with many live in mansions and most have a car with per-capita income of 80,000 yuan (US$ 11,700) making Huaxi the China’s richest village.
#6 » China has cash to buy 20% of S&P500
United States is still worry about China’s military strength. Of course there’s no way China will reveal her real (military) statistic since it’s so fun watching U.S. sending its intelligence gathering information. Can you still remember the detention of 24 U.S. crews after the collision of U.S. EP-3E Aries II spy plane with Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea back in 2001? United States demanded the return of its spy plane but China said it would only do so after completing its own inspection and collection of evidence. China was having fun stripping the spy plane naked for whatever military technologies or knowhow that China could use.
But the strength of China may lies on its economy after all. Instead of engaging in wars, China may just start buying countries with its huge crates of cash. China’s central bank recorded foreign exchange reserves of US$2.399 trillion as of end 2009 (23% jump compared to 2008) and this was achieved during global crisis, mind you. With this type of money China can buy almost 20% of S&P500, if the Chinese government goes crazy.
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