The “Taikor” Dow Jones has erased a whopping 2,300 points since six days ago and all were in triple-digit loss. I hope none of FinanceTwitter readers bought any Call Options when all the gamblers and traders were shorting the market using Put Options since the ban on short-selling. After the 777-point plunge now we saw 678-point plunge to 8,579.19 Thursday. The scary part is not about the triple-point tumble although the 7 percent drop would normally saw many jaws dropped onto the floor before the $700 billion rescue plan; but rather the fact that the 9,000 level was breached with such an ease. This is bad news, mind you, and it’s no brainer that you can increase your bet on Put Options. Wait! Hang on there!

If you’ve existing profitable Put Options then transform yourself to be either a bull or a bear but not a pig. Take some money off the table simply because you won’t know when the technical rebound is. But if you haven’t enter into the market yet, please do your homework and gauge the stock market sentiment daily before the market starts. I’ve said in such a panic situation, you can relieve yourself of the abundance of technical analysis because it’s useless for the time being. Technical chart can’t tell you the force of panic selling (can they?) and the bad news / statistic to be released by government agencies. Simple yet disastrous news such as “possibility” of a credit rating downgrade on General Motors Corp. was enough to create havoc on the stock market as can be witnessed on Thursday’s trading. (Watch out Proton! You’re next)

And if you believe the curse of Friday, you just have added another reason to be extremely bearish when the market open later. People do not think logically and any attempt(s) or initiative(s) announced by the federal government to save or calm the situation will be seen from the negative perspective / angle. So when the federal government said they wish to stabilize U.S. banks in exchange for equity stakes, investors generally thought that more banks are crumbling down and this started another round of panic-selling. Since six days ago, the selling volume is still high and there’s no sign to show otherwise. I pity the next President of the United States, whoever he is because this is not a toy for small boy.

At the same time I also pity Second Finance Minister Nor Yakcop (for being trapped in denial syndrome) on his statement that Malaysia will not go into recession although he was smart enough to say the economic growth for next year, 2009, might have to be examined. He might not want to create panic but it would be better to get the people ready instead; just like when the lame duck outgoing PM assured the people there would be not fuel hike only to raise it by 41 percent to the surprises and horrors of the whole population. Just because the U.S. is thousands of miles away doesn’t mean Malaysia is shielded from the impact. I think the situation is critical enough for Indonesian stock exchange to be “suspended indefinitely” to prevent deeper panic after the JSX was down by 21 percent this week alone. I can’t remember JSC was frozen even during the 1997-1998 Asia Economic Crisis, can you?

I doubt the local banks would face the same fate as some of the troubled U.S. banks because the 1997-1998 Recession has thought the local banks to be prudent. Nevertheless local banks are starting to be selective in their lending which means more small and medium businesses would be affected. Although the local banks will not go bust (hopefully) the business will be slowing down and thus the earnings for the subsequent quarters will not be rosy. You can only expect more and more corporate earnings growth cut from analysts (Citi already did that) on local financial institutions (follows by other sectors) and this is enough to put many economic wheels to a standstill. It would be nice to make money from U.S. and put it to good use by whacking the local stocks. Isn’t it beautiful to watch the Ringgit flushing down the toilet against the Dollar? Is Najib any better than Badawi in managing the economy and to find a formula to minimize the impact?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Cash is King but do you have the bullets?
• Dow below 10,000; $700B bailout plan was the poison?
• Short-Selling Crackdown on Naked Shorties but will it help?
• Waiting for Congress’s “Aye” but the Problem is Gigantic

Tweet

October 10th, 2008 by financetwitter

If you enjoyed this post, what shall you do next? Consider: