Stocks recover but too early to heave a sight of relief?



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Jan 25 2008
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Weird as it is but that’s the fact. Ben Bernanke and his panicked team cut the interest rate by a whopping 0.75 percent yet the U.S. stock markets couldn’t lift it’s barometer into the positive territory after plunged more than 400 points early of the day. What does that tells you? Squarely the investors were not that convinced or optimistic that the gloomy days are over. Try to cut such a quantum rate on normal day and you can expect Dow Jones to skyrocket more than 500 points.

Not even the $150 billion initial plan by George Bush administration could pull the stubborn bear out of the drain. And now after some internal fights House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Republican leader John Boehner and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson appears to agree to pump about $150 billion into the economy this year – hoping the word recession would not becomes reality.

Stock markets reacted positively, at least temporarily. Back to the drawing board, it was hope that the plan in providing rebate checks to 117 million families and $50 billion in incentives for businesses to invest in new plants and equipment will work. Under the plan agreed, U.S. individual taxpayers would get up to $600 in rebates, working couples $1,200 and those with children an additional $300 per child. The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose adjusted gross income exceeds $75,000 and for couples with incomes above $150,000.

What’s the actual objective of such plan? None other than to get consumers to spend but is it that simple? The business owners will be able to write off 50 percent of the purchase price of plants and other capital equipment immediately. However, the problem with the housing crisis is not yet over. It won’t be a nice picture if people are still pessimistic about the housing sector. Like it or not we’re still in the bear market and everyone hates bear markets. Robert Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, said he doesn’t think the real selling has even begun and that the market only now realizes how seriously overexposed it was to loans and securities that should never have been made.

The main thing that you should worry is the fact that the smart-money has not trigger the sell-off in a grand big wave yet. It’s simply too early to say the sky is finally clear now.

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