Kuala Lumpur Composite Index is approaching the 900-mark when it rose a whopping 17.61 points to close at 894.36 today, the first day of the New Year 2009 *Wow!*. Stocks jumped today primarily due to gains in plantation stocks as crude palm oil futures climbed another 3% bringing the four-day gains to 11%, thanks to crude oil. Major plantation stocks such as IOI Corp, Sime Darby Berhad, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad and Tradewinds Plantation Berhad were smiling from ear to ear. It seems Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad has underestimate KLCI when its prediction of 900 by end of 2009 is just inches away on the first day of the New Year trading alone.
If you’re still not convinced yet that the bottom is history and the local stocks might just have reaches its orgasm today then you’ve missed the boat *grin*. But today’s climax was caused by crude palm oil which in turns follows crude oil that is trading above $40 – $45 a barrel. So will the oil continue to lubricate and extend the black gold’s bullishness once again? Many stock investors and analysts think we have enough of bad news and the market is somehow immune to it hence there’s no reason why the stocks should not go north. At the same time they are comfortable that second half of this year (2009) should be the turning point (yeah right, who doesn’t know that?).
Analysts also are banking on historical statistic that stock markets normally started to recover around 6 months to 9 months before the economic activity data turns for the better. Therefore logically if (and only if) the U.S. economy has seen the worst and will recover on the second half of 2009 then now is the freaking good time to make your calls. But on the other hand if you rely on such historical statistic to support your decision to jump into the stock market then you have to believe that the current bull (if you can call it in the first place) may be due to Chinese New Year rally that normally happens two to three weeks before the festive season starts. And with any other Chinese New Year rally it will soon evaporate thereafter.
I’ve mentioned analysts and economists will have nowhere to go but to wait and crunch the economic data from the United States. The Institute for Supply Management has just released data that the manufacturing index fell to 32.4 in December (from 36.2 in November) against Thomson Reuters’ estimation of 35.5 – the lowest in 28 years. If such data were to be released last year the Dow Jones would definitely tumble again but with investors getting immune to such data and the fact that the market pulse has entered the climax level, a gentle stroke could stimulate orgasm *grin*. So what are the magic touches that are so powerful that it is over-riding the current gloomy global economy as if the G-Spot is within reach?
We’ve touched on the New Year feel-good plus the pre Chinese New Year mini bull. The stock markets have seen steady decline without a real strong technical rebound thus we’ve every reason to believe that it should happen now. Also we’re going to see the new President of the United States, Barack Obama, taking office on 20th Jan so expect some stimulus plan (public investment program worth $1 trillion over two years?) that could push up the Dow Jones further. Simply put Obama cannot afford to see angry workers on the street lest he wish to see another episode of flying-shoes. Now you have all the reason to justify that Jan 2009 may be a bull month but the question is will it lasts?
Personally I doubt so but you can put your money against that (I may be wrong). Having said that swing traders should be able to make good money during this month so if you’re not a long-term investor, you’ve every reason to smile. But please watch your back against the the 900 (KLCI) and 9,000 (DJIA) resistance level. You could be buying at the highest at the current level *grin*. If a 22-year-old newscaster (due to be married next week) at a private television network and a 24-year-old part-time actress who also is a scriptwriter could engaged in private sex party during New Year celebration, who are we to deny the bull from having its orgasm for the month? Nevertheless I wonder why the police is so secretive about the wild sex party case that they’re now decided not to charge them. The newscaster may not be as popular as Siti Nurhaliza but I bet her soon-to-be husband must be a Datuk or Dato businessman.
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January 2nd, 2009 by financetwitter
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Wishing you a Happy Chinese New Year 2009 !! (: