As 2008 closes, 2009 opens another Challenging Chapter





Dec 30 2008
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I believe I have wrote this and I’ll repeat this again – United States is still the world’s largest economy nation in the world and when she sneezes, every nation in this globe catches cold. With a whopping US14.3 trillion worth of GDP (gross domestic product), China is nowhere near this nation and only constitute less than one-fourth of United State’s GDP. Take away Japan and toss in European Union’s largest economy powerhouse Germany and new kid on the block India plus the Asean countries and you still can’t move this giant United States. Of course Japan’s economy goes hand-in-hand with United States’ prosperity and is now struggling not to sink.

It takes lots of courage to announce, no matter how silly it was that an export-oriented country such as Malaysia will not enter recession. And it’s amusing to hear out-dated story that Malaysia will attract foreign investors to relocate their manufacturing plants to the country because of the cheap labour cost. Heck, have they forgotten Vietnam or Cambodia? It’s sad that after so many decades all we can sell is our cheap labour, not being able to move up the value chain. Maybe that’s the reason why fresh graduates today can only command almost the same salary their father was asking decades ago. No wonder corruption is rampant, most probably because they need to put foods on the table *I think*.

The prosperous Germany is having serious problem because it depends on China of which in turn depends on United States. So U.S. feeds China which in turns feed Germany. In other words U.S. has trade-deficit of about $708 billion in 2007 and most of it went to China ($262 billion surplus) and Germany ($288 billion surplus). It was outrages to hear people screaming that everything is alright because the China and India’s economy engine is running so it’s perfectly OK for United States to go into recession. Make no mistake about it – China and India is not backup engine that could take over U.S. economy, at least not yet.

Countries such as Malaysia would be in deep trouble if the cash-cow such as EPF (Employee Provident Fund) is mismanaged. Thank God it is still in good health but it’s because private sector is generating good amount of income in terms of taxes to the coffers. Germany system was such that a whopping 45% of its people dependent on government. The country has multiple taxes ranging from 15% – 45% income taxes and social securities such as retirement, unemployment, health insurance and nursing care and this list continues. The taxes can be so high that there’s little motivation to work. Instead it’s more lucrative for Germans to rely on government benefits so if you’re unemployed then go and claim your benefits.

Did I hear people said the economy is recovering because the global oil prices went above $40 a barrel? The oil prices were up because of Gaza conflict and it’s just a temporary jump. It won’t goes beyond $45 because if it’s sensitive enough the production cuts of more than 4 million barrels per day by OPEC would have shown its magic, wouldn’t it? The fact is everybody is waiting for data to be released by various U.S. agencies going into the New Year. And this is one area that you should pay attention because the data are reflection of how U.S. economy is doing. The superstitious Chinese is predicting a recovery in 2009 simply because it’s a Bull Year. Well, there’re 12 months in 2009 so even if the stocks recover on the 12th month, they still can be right. But that would be another article for another time. For the time being forget about the stocks and prepare to celebrate the coming 2009 New Year, shall we? Happy New Year folks!

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Comments

my grandmother just past away last few day n i was there … u no the thing we do for people past away n i hear my uncle friend say there are many factory in malaysia will close after the new year then they will open in singapore close after the chinese new year … most of it will ask the so call worker to take unpaid leave trow lest of the year …. 2day kwong wah also say us will have lot of shop close after the new year… …. after the new new i will be hunting for cheep stock now just enjoy the us show… 😛

my grandmother just past away last few day n i was there … u no the thing we do for people past away n i hear my uncle friend say there are many factory in malaysia will close after the new year then they will open in singapore close after the chinese new year … most of it will ask the so call worker to take unpaid leave trow lest of the year …. 2day kwong wah also say us will have lot of shop close after the new year… …. after the new new i will be hunting for cheep stock now just enjoy the us show… 😛

Happy New Year to you too :)

Happy New Year to you too :)

sorry to hear about your grandma randy … happy hunting (for cheap stocks) …

cheers …

sorry to hear about your grandma randy … happy hunting (for cheap stocks) …cheers …

happy new year to you too CK …cheers …

Great post. It is a wake up call for everyone just how inter connected our economies are. If anything we have learned is that all economies need to start producing more, saving more, spending less on credit…and on and on.

Happy New Years to everyone!

Great post. It is a wake up call for everyone just how inter connected our economies are. If anything we have learned is that all economies need to start producing more, saving more, spending less on credit…and on and on.Happy New Years to everyone!

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