While Malaysia’s multi-coalition Unity Government remains intact at the federal level, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), a governing partner, is waging selective wars in its strongholds that are threatening to expose the fragility and weakness of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration. By forcing snap polls in the state of Johor and Negeri Sembilan, UMNO is testing the waters.
The Malay nationalist party is also considering declaring snap elections in neighbouring Melaka, another stronghold which must dissolve the state assembly before December 2026. Going by the deadlines to hold elections, Melaka (Malacca) should be the first state to go to the polls, followed by Johor (last election: March 2022) and Negeri Sembilan (last election: August 2023).
By accelerating the contests in Johor and Negeri Sembilan rather than allowing them to end their 5-year-term naturally, UMNO effectively – and deliberately – denies Anwar-led Pakatan Harapan coalition the time to consolidate its organizational presence in the party’s traditional bastions. But why is UMNO only interested in these three states? Why not Perak or Pahang?
For any coalition to win the next general election, they must capture Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka because the ethnic demographics mirror Malaysia’s overall population – 60% Bumiputera, 30% Chinese, and 10% Indian and other ethnicities breakdown. It was no coincidence that when the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional alliance lost power for the first time in the May 2018 General Election, it also lost control of the three states.
These three key states are like the seven must-win battleground states in the United States – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada – that a candidate must secure to win a U.S. presidential election. Because the majority of states consistently vote for the same party, the U.S. election is ultimately decided by these seven “key swing states”.
Yes, when opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) won a majority in the Negeri Sembilan, Johor and Melaka state assemblies in 2018, while retaining control over Penang and Selangor, not only Mahathir Mohamad led PH to toppling the long ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) government for the first time in history, but also winning the “popular vote”.
Likewise, it was no coincidence that when UMNO prematurely and arrogantly bulldozed a snap national poll in November 2022 in anticipation of a huge win, it performed worse than in 2018 instead. After Barisan Nasional won a landslide victory in the November 2021 Melaka state election, it was emboldened to trigger the March 2022 Johor state election. In both states, it won a super-majority.
However, UMNO had overlooked two problems. First, UMNO recklessly forced the 15th General Election in November 2022 without considering Negeri Sembilan. Second, the previous Melaka and Johor state elections were called while the Covid-19 pandemic was still spreading – a deliberate tactical move and manipulation to force a low turnout, which worked in favour of Barisan Nasional.
As a result, Barisan Nasional (BN) won only 30 parliamentary seats, marking the coalition’s worst-ever historical performance and was a significant drop from 2018, when it won 79 seats. But BN was lucky enough to be part of the current federal government due to the hung parliament. It became the kingmaker, without which neither Pakatan Harapan (PH) nor Perikatan Nasional (PN) could form a government.
This round, UMNO is more cautious, having learned its lesson four years ago. That’s why it purposely made its first move in Negeri Sembilan. Unlike Johor, Negeri Sembilan – which dissolved its 36-member state assembly on June 5 – was jointly run by two reluctant separate political coalitions PH and BN, replicating a power-sharing model of the federal unity government.
The term of the Negeri Sembilan assembly only expires in November 2028, but the state administration – led by Anwar’s party PKR – was plunged into crisis when UMNO’s 14 state assemblymen withdrew their support for the PH administration that has 17 representatives, two short of a majority to govern. It was a tactical move to force Anwar’s hand as this is the only state among the three key states not under UMNO’s control.
PH had originally decided to continue running the state administration with a minority government. But after UMNO declared that it was considering snap polls in Johor – a trap to provoke PH leaders to foolishly swallow the hook, line and sinker – Anwar’s PH, in order not to look weak and lose face, decided that it would seek a fresh mandate in Negeri Sembilan in a tit-for-tat response.
By breaking its electoral pact in Negeri Sembilan, UMNO has opened a crucial second front to its increasingly aggressive political campaign and expanded the battlefield to test its political prowess and influence. From the beginning, UMNO has been planning for a free-for-all election in Negeri Sembilan as it understood the importance of winning all three states on its own.
If victorious in early state polls in Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, it would allow BN to rebuild momentum independently of the federal unity government, positioning itself more strongly ahead of the 16th General Election due by early 2028. In the same breath, it also hopes the victory would rally its traditional supporters who had abandoned the party to return in droves.
While Johor and Melaka appear within BN’s grasp, Negeri Sembilan is a tough nut to crack. Betting that the indecisive and coward Anwar Ibrahim has no balls to call for an early national elections together with state elections, UMNO’s strategy is to use the results from the three state elections to predict the results of the next 16th General Election.
BN won the 2021 Melaka state election independently, securing 21 out of 28 seats, whilst PH holds 5 seats. Following the formation of the Unity Government at the federal level, BN, which leads the Melaka state government with a two-thirds majority, had included PH in the state administration and executive council. But why hasn’t BN dissolved the Melaka state assembly?
The Melaka state government is waiting to see the results of Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections. If BN wins both states, UMNO Melaka will definitely go solo – and gives PH the middle finger and tells Anwar to go fly kite. However, if UMNO Johor fails to repeat its 2022 landslide victory or fails to convincingly win Negeri Sembilan, BN may invite PH to contest together the Melaka state election.
UMNO is playing a clever game. Regardless of whether power-crazy Anwar drags the national polls till next year in order to cling to power for as long as possible, or dissolves the parliament this year, UMNO would own Johor and Melaka, and possibly Negeri Sembilan. As much as Anwar and his sidekick – DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke – try to appease UMNO, BN has other plans.
In recent months, news reports have surfaced that UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had held a secret meeting in mid-December 2025 with key leaders from the ethnic Malay parties in the opposition, including the religious extremist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). Drunk with power, both Anwar and Loke still hope to work with UMNO for a second term.
The best part is Anwar was only alerted to the meeting after his clueless and incompetent Home Minister, Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, was informed about the secret Bangkok huddle by the Thai intelligence. After being exposed,Zahid had to acknowledge the meeting, claiming that it was “no secret” and that PM Anwar had been informed that the meeting was over negotiations about “Muslim unity”.
Caught with his pants down, the Prime Minister could only keep quiet – could neither acknowledge Zahid’s claim nor rock the boat by severing ties with UMNO. The Bangkok meeting sends a clear signal that UMNO was testing the waters for a “new alignment”. And that new alignment is being tested in Johor with suspicious political manoeuvres by the opposition to help BN.
In June 28, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man reportedly had instructed party members and supporters to vote for BN candidates in the seats that PN is not contesting in Johor. While BN and PH are contesting all 56 seats in the Johor state election, PN is vying for only 33 constituencies, including 11 contested by PAS. This was despite PN saying earlier that it would contest all seats.
Johor has never been a PAS stronghold, allowing the Islamist party to “offer gifts” to UMNO as part of a longer-term national strategy. It was also part of PAS’ strategy to sever ties with Bersatu, its closest partner in PN, in preparation to form the next government together with UMNO. Bersatu and UMNO are bitter enemies, so PAS has to choose one of them.
Even though UMNO top leadership has not welcomes PAS’s support, it has not rejected it either. To win Johor, BN needs all the votes it can get. While rumours of an electoral pact between PN and BN to avoid multi-cornered fights had not materialised, the latest PAS directive signalled that the party remains open to closer cooperation with UMNO, despite the absence of a formal electoral pact.
But there’s a new wildcard – Bersama. The new party under de facto leader Rafizi Ramli, who was once PKR’s deputy president and widely seen as the party’s most effective campaign strategist, will be tested in the coming state elections when PH does battle with UMNO. Bersama, contesting 15 seats in Johor, would steal votes from both PH and BN.
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June 30th, 2026 by financetwitter
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