Using data of about 6,000 matches played since 1980, American investment bank Goldman Sachs has devised a probability model which predicts that England will win the Euro 2020. If the prediction comes true, it will be the “Three Lions” first major soccer tournament victory in 55 years since 1966. England thrashed West Germany 4-2 in 1966 on home soil to win the FIFA World Cup.
As a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm, Goldman has all the computing power and top brains to work on the probability model, which dumps variables and factors such as current team strength, goals scored, recent performances, effects of home advantage and whatnot into a set of complex algorithms and calculations.
Last month, analysts at Goldman predicted that England will beat Germany 2-1 in their second-round match at Wembley before progressing to the final. England have not beaten Germany in a knockout round at a major tournament since 1966. As predicted, England beat Germany 2-0 last week (June 30), thanks to second-half goals from Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane.
However, the U.S. bank, which reported record first-quarter net profits (US$6.84 billion) and revenues (US$17.7 billion) this year, did not give much hope for England until Italy’s 2-1 shocking win against Belgium. Its initial model had predicted that Belgium will lift the trophy. England was supposed to beat Sweden in the quarter finals and the Netherlands in the semi-finals before losing 2-1 to Belgium in the final.
Goldman’s Christian Schnittker said – “Italy’s 2-1 win against Belgium was a shock to our model, which so far had seen Belgium as the most likely team to take home the trophy.” With Italy’s stunning victory, it will advance to the other semi-final against Spain, who narrowly overcame Switzerland in a penalty shootout. Spain is predicted to win against Italy on Tuesday.
With Belgium out of the competition now, and England’s huge 4-1 win against Ukraine, the Goldman Sachs model sees England as the favourite to win the Euro 2020, the UEFA European Football Championship which is being played a year later due to the Covid-19 outbreak. England faces Denmark on Wednesday for a place in the final.
According to Goldman Sach’s probability model, England now has a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament. Spain, on the other hand, has 54.6% and 24.6% chances respectively. Italy has the third highest chances, after England and Spain, to reach the final with 45% and 22.4% chance of winning the trophy.
As the underdog, Denmark has a 42.3% chances of reaching the final and only 21.2% of winning the Euro 2020. The investment bank’s model says England is expected to beat Denmark 2-1, while Spain is predicted to beat Italy 2-1 in extra-time. Of course, if England is somehow knocked out by Denmark due to unseen factors, the probability will change again.
It’s wise to take such a model with a pinch of salt. Three years ago, economists at the same Goldman Sachs had predicted that England may make it to the final of the World Cup 2018, following the team’s dramatic win against Panama. The investment bank had also projected Brazil as the best team to win the World Cup in Russia.
Five-time champion Brazil eventually lost to Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-finals. England only finished fourth after losing 2-0 to Belgium in the third place play-off. France beat Croatia 4-2 for the World Cup in the final. Like it or not, Goldman Sachs cannot keep on moving the goalposts whenever its predictions fail to materialise.
Over the time, Paul the octopus, Achille the cat, Nelly the elephant and Alf the penguin have all had their fair amount of success in the business of predictions. Even Boy the 5-year-old white lion at a Thailand zoo has correctly predicted Euro 2020 results. Nevertheless, England’s win over Ukraine was already a minor victory – its first European Championship semi-final for 25 years.
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July 6th, 2021 by financetwitter
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Blighty needs a probability model for whether the Chinese may sink its brand new aircraft carrier the Mrs Windsor II.
Mathematical modelling is notoriously unreliable, there was that one by the Imperial College on Covid which had the Brits panicking and wetting themselves stupid. But it could be reliable, if, like the Indians, the Brits don’t hide their true figures for the infection rates and deaths. The true figures, so it appeared for the Brit case was believed to be x5 the official, the Indian one, an amazing x10 to x30 those bogus figures given.
Goldman Sachs is itself a bullsh*t outfit, though very well-connected with governments, its power players are provided for by the revolving doors system of gomens who prostitute themselves going in and out of the system serving themselves than the countries. But that, no doubt still impress our power and money worshipping fcuking monkeys.
Well, if England’s win since that fcuking racist Baldy Charlton was still running in the pitch comes true, it would be fun if the naughty Chinese spoils it by sinking the Queenie II since they are itching to do that.
I won’t put much faith in any probability model, it would be as good as voodoo science. For such our bomoh predictions with coconuts, and predictions by scratching testicles are just as valid for those poor in maths, and inclined toward telling massive lies with impossible figures, stand up India and Malaysia.
Not much point in football, two bunches of arseh*les chasing a bit of leather, and source of plenty of friction between the scums of the earth of Malaysia and Indonesia. Unless you are betting on the games, there’s not much point in any sport if you are not a player, even less if you are not tribally English, but only wearing an England shirt – like so many PAS supporters happily and proudly wearing the red devil.
In cricket, if you are not one side or the other, but vociferously cheering, you’d be told to mind your own business and fcuk off. And quite right too!
I would hope our bookies have not prepared themselves to rig or sabotage the game, Malaysians are singularly the most notorious criminals when it comes to doing such things.
Now take off your pirated England shirt and get back to waving your white flags, you silly little monkeys!
And don’t put all your life saving and money from Ebit on England, Ameen!