It’s nice to see Dow Jones was strong enough to bounce to two-digit loss from the initial three-digit loss intraday although it closed at below 8,000-level. Everyone is waiting for the earnings result from aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. scheduled Tuesday which will set the direction as what to expect from the U.S. economy for this quarter. Let’s hope the worst is over and the depression to hit U.S. is a myth although employers have so far cut 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in the country. Still, economists said unemployment, now at 8.5% nationwide in U.S., could climb above 10% by end of 2009 while some said the labor market may not return to normal until 2013.

But then nobody dares to put all their money in time of uncertainty. The most they’re willing to commit is probably a quarter of their money into the stock market, betting and hoping that the coming earnings result will instill confidence. The current bull could be a sucker’s rally for all you know. Defence Secretary Robert Gates has even advised pulling the plug on spending more billions into futuristic yet super-expensive F-22 Raptor jet fighters which costs a whopping $140 million apiece. The Obama administration’s Pentagon Chief said Pentagon won’t continue the F-22 program beyond 187 planes to which the contractor, Lockheed, retaliated that the plan could slash almost 95,000 jobs.

Anyway, regardless whether the worst is indeed over or it was just another trap to suck you into the black-hole investors are revisiting the history’s data for technical charts to decide if the time is ripe to do the right thing. Looking back at the 140-year of bull and bear markets, indeed you can learn a lot from it. No wonder investors and punters are so obsessed with catching the falling knives. Tell me what you can see from the charts below. Do you see Bull? Do you see Bear?

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April 7th, 2009 by financetwitter

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