A week ago, Donald Trump said he was calling off the biggest military attack since World War II because a deal to end the Iran War was imminent. When there was no deal, as the world had already anticipated, he changed his story. Now, he’s signalling the U.S. is in no rush to resolve the conflict, preparing instead to wait out Tehran by applying economic pressure. But Trump was not alone.
On Tuesday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC to brag that a deal could be announced later that day to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The stock market jumped significantly. Again, there was no deal. It’s unclear whether Bessent had been scammed by the U.S. president into believing there was one, or he is learning fast the art of scamming the financial markets.
For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran War should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal. The problem with Trump is he has been playing the game of chicken with Tehran for too long that Iran is getting good at the game itself.
Every time Trump threatens to bomb the hell out of Iran, only to make a spectacular U-turn, Tehran becomes increasingly confident that the POTUS will bluff again. The Commander-in-Chief can’t win at the poker table if he keeps announcing his plan to attack Iran, but never follows through. Even though gambling is prohibited in Iran, they still can smell a bluffer like Trump from thousands of miles away.
On Saturday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, laid out the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They include the U.S. permanently ending the war, lifting its naval blockade, removing U.S. forces from the region, ending all sanctions, freeing Iran’s frozen assets, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments and ending threats and insults, among other things.
Such conditions show the Iranian regime believes they have the upper hand, they believe they are winning, therefore, they are emboldened to issue such ridiculous demands. Tehran deliberately – and tactically – wanted to narrow the options for Trump to walk away from the conflict. It’s Trump’s fault for repeatedly threatening – and then backing away from – a massive escalation of its bombing campaign.
President Trump in February 2025 famously told Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he didn’t “have the cards” in talks with Russia. Now, Tehran is playing the same game as Trump. Despite more than 5 months of U.S.-Israel heavy bombardment, destroying much of its military and killing numerous top leaders, Iran still has the trump card – Strait of Hormuz.
Weaponizing the Hormuz is somehow proving effective because there isn’t an easy way to replace this waterway in terms of global trade in the Middle East. Just a few missiles and drones are enough to create a lot of havoc in that waterway. And Iran knows the U.S. has been reluctant to send in ground troops to clear out Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also knows that Trump is terrified of high oil prices.
“Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” – said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.
Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House’s ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump initially indicated that Tehran’s nuclear program is non-negotiable. But when Iran insisted that it would not abandon it, Trump blinked and chickened out. The White House in recent weeks has changed its focus to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proven to be powerful leverage for the country, stalling commercial traffic and spooking global oil markets. Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those declarations has proven premature and false.
Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Mr Trump has been desperately looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won. But the prospects of a deal diminished over the weekend when the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a missile attack on one of its ships.
By attacking the U.A.E. and laying out a series of tough demands for allowing traffic through the Hormuz, Tehran was not only testing Trump’s patience, but also showing the middle finger to the United States. In fact, Iran was provoking the U.S. president to retaliate so that global oil prices would spike. The average price of gasoline was US$4.02 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA.
On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year. U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president said.
This suggests that Trump doesn’t care if Iran resumes its nuclear program “after” his presidency. He could then brag with story that Tehran was afraid to continue the nuclear weapons when he was the U.S. president, the same way he has frequently claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin respected him and that the Ukraine War would never have happened or would not have been started while he was in office.
Make no mistake – Iran, at least Trump thinks, may not be able to resume its nuclear program not because it agrees to. But because it takes time to retrieve after the U.S. bombardment. Trump said – “We’ve already got the nuclear material, because it’s so far underground. Nobody’s going to be able to get it except us.”
If the U.S. can keep the nuclear program in check and traffic resumes in the strait, then Trump is more likely to extend the current ceasefire indefinitely. He also is expected to lift the U.S. military blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran fully reopens the strait. However, there’s one huge problem with Iran’s demands – money – for obvious reasons.
Trump cannot agree to Tehran’s demand seeking billions of dollars in war reparations in addition to an agreement to unfreeze the country’s assets around the world. He would not only lose face, but also be seen as an admission of guilt and a sign of surrender. Trump has said the White House wouldn’t allow any taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a deal appears unlikely without the U.S. unfreezing some assets.
There also is a dispute about whether the U.S. should issue waivers to let Iran sell oil on the open market. The U.S. had agreed to the waivers last June as part of an interim peace agreement with Iran. However, that ceasefire collapsed after Iran attacked ships in the strait, and the U.S. reinstated sanctions on the Iranian oil trade.
Tehran’s game plan is clear. It wanted to squeeze President Trump, who is increasingly losing patience and might recklessly agree to most of Iran’s demands. At the very least, Iran wanted the U.S. to look weak by demanding Washington surrender on Iran’s terms. Unlike Trump’s goal in seeking a traditional military victory, Tehran’s objective was regime survival and restoring deterrence.
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August 11th, 2026 by financetwitter
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