Nothing short of the most powerful post – Prime Minister – can swing Barisan Nasional to the Opposition. That’s because Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is the president of UMNO and the chairman of Barisan Nasional, is already the Deputy Prime Minister. Why go through all the trouble to quit the current Unity Government if he will only get the same Deputy Prime Minister post?

 

For two years, opposition Perikatan Nasional could not solve the puzzle – till now. Finally, they have offered the premiership to Mr Zahid. Even then, it was done discreetly to test the water through low-ranking powerbrokers such as Shahidan Kassim, the disgraced former UMNO warlord charged for molesting a teenager in 2018. But the SCAM has backfired spectacularly.

 

Not only Zahid exposed the plot, but revealed Shahidan was not the only one trying to lure him to join the opposition, with the 11th Prime Minister as the bait. Assuming he did not lie, it’s safe to assume that the top leadership of Bersatu or Islamist party PAS did not directly participate. But if neither PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang nor Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin wanted to meet Zahid, no deal can be made.

How do we know that Hadi or Muhyiddin hadn’t met with Zahid to strike a deal? If they had, they would not have sent a clown like Shahidan, who together with another UMNO traitor Annuar Musa, had proven their disloyalty by switching sides and contested under enemy banners in the 15th General Election. To succeed, it must have the element of surprise like the infamous “Sheraton Move” back in 2020.

 

Get real, Zahid might not look clever, but he isn’t stupid. Without both Hadi and Muhyiddin coming with a fruit basket to sweet talk – and beg – the UMNO president into betraying PM Anwar, any talks are as good as coffee talk that lacks sincerity and seriousness. Even if Hadi and Muhyiddin have come bearing gifts, both traitors cannot be trusted – even by UMNO’s low standard.

 

Actually, the opposition representatives did not offer the prime minister’s post exclusively for Zahid. They only proposed a candidate from Barisan Nasional to become the prime minister, which means it could be someone else like UMNO deputy president Mohamad Hasan, and not necessary Zahid. Therefore, the evil plan was DOA (dead on arrival) before any negotiation could even begin.

It’s not hard to understand why Perikatan Nasional cannot accept Zahid as the next premier. After two years of mocking, belittling, insulting and laughing at him, Hadi and Muhyiddin would lose face and look like a fool for suddenly embracing Mr Zahid as their new leader. The fantasized new Cabinet, which would see PAS “poster boy” Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar as deputy prime minister, has a huge problem though.

 

The offer is two years too late, unfortunately. Anwar Ibrahim might still be PM-in-waiting today had Muhyiddin and Hadi decisively and promptly offered the premiership to Zahid after the November 2022 election which produced a hung parliament. However, both arrogant and power-hungry opposition leaders were stuck in the illusion that they could form another backdoor government.

 

Yes, there have been a lot of miscalculations and strategic errors. After the November 2022 national polls, Perikatan Nasional had a chance to return to power. However, Muhyiddin’s arrogance – flatly rejecting a “Unity Government” proposed by King Sultan Abdullah – saw the opportunity crushed as he insisted to become the prime minister, and not the deputy to rival Pakatan Harapan leader Anwar Ibrahim.

Hadi Awang was equally arrogant and over-confident that Perikatan Nasional could become the government – misled and hoodwinked by Muhyiddin’s claim that they had 115 SDs (statutory declarations) of support. It was both puzzling and hilarious they were clueless that with the implementation of anti-hopping law, those SDs was not worth the paper it’s written on.

 

Former PM Muhyiddin was furiously mad after the King rejected his 115 SDs, but it was too late to cry over spilt milk. Barisan Nasional, despite suffering its worst defeat in history, has suddenly become the kingmaker. Without its 30 MPs, neither Pakatan Harapan (82 MPs) nor Perikatan Nasional (74 MPs) could form a government. It was game over after Barisan chose Pakatan over Perikatan.

 

Still, Muhyiddin and Hadi convinced themselves that the six-state election in August 2023 could be their second chance to seize power. The logic was that if Perikatan Nasional could snatch states under Pakatan Harapan rule like Selangor, Negeri Sembilan or Penang, it would spook UMNO Malay nationalist party into withdrawing its support for PM Anwar, and rejoin Perikatan Nasional.

That did not happen and the results of the six-state election were status quo. After failures to return to power – both in November 2022 followed by the August 2023 elections – the opposition enters the 7 stages of the grieving process – shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, testing, and acceptance. Symptoms of grief usually resolve after 1 to 2 years, which is roughly now.

 

Having accepted the reality that Perikatan Nasional is now the Opposition, however, does not mean they have stopped plotting Sheraton Move 2.0, mind you. Offering Barisan Nasional the premiership was a long shot. The immediate objective was to destabilize the unity government by creating rumours, distrust and of course, fanning racial and religious flames.

 

Bersatu newly undemocratic-appointed deputy president Hamzah Zainudin quickly played down the offer made to Zahid as just a conversation between two old friends. But Zahid’s tactical move to tell all and sundry has already earned him valuable political points. He becomes an instant hero by saying he rejected the offer as he was unwilling to betray his allies in the unity government.

His naughty statement was designed to demonstrate not only his loyalty to PM Anwar, but to remind the voters of the disgusting treachery and treasonous of Muhyiddin, Hamzah, Hadi, and all the traitors who had betrayed and backstabbed the previous democratically elected Pakatan Harapan government. Zahid wanted to create a perception that he is the good guy, unlike the bad guy Perikatan Nasional.

 

Crucially, Zahid understood very well the opposition’s game plan. Just like how he withdrew support for Muhyiddin, causing the ex-backdoor premier to lose power in just 17 months, it’s a matter of time before Muhyiddin returned the favour once Zahid jumped ship and become the next backdoor prime minister in a glorified Malay-Muslim government. The endless power struggle will repeat once again.

 

Another factor is the remaining 3 years before the next election. Even if Zahid is as power-hungry as Muhyiddin and Hadi, it’s not worth the risk to jump back into the fire after getting out of the frying pan. At best, he could become the 11th Prime Minister for merely 3 years before the next election must be called. At worst, he could be humiliated as the shortest serving PM for a few months.

Mr Zahid will be held hostage by crooked Muhyiddin, demanding all the corruption and money laundering charges against him be dropped, or else support for Zahid will be withdrawn. With only 30 parliamentary seats, Barisan Nasional can only ask how high whenever “Big Brother” Perikatan Nasional tells it to jump. But that was not the only risks.

 

There is no guarantee that Anwar administration will automatically collapse if Zahid-led Barisan Nasional withdraws support. There are other permutations to form a unity government without Barisan Nasional post-Nov 2022 election – Pakatan Harapan (82) + GPS (22) + GRS (6) + Warisan (3) = 113 seats. With the defection of six Bersatu MPs, that equation becomes 119 MPs supporting Anwar.

 

Mathematically, Barisan Nasional’s 30 MPs and Perikatan Nasional’s 68 MPs (PAS’ 43 and Bersatu’s 25) are short of 14 MPs to form a simple majority government in the 222-seat parliament. They need as least Sarawak GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak) to join the bandwagon before Anwar can be toppled. However, GPS isn’t likely to join the racist bigot Bersatu, let alone the religious extremist PAS.

Even if GPS chairman Abang Johari Openg can be persuaded to switch sides, which he can’t, there’s another problem. The next Sarawak state election must be held by 15 April 2027 at the latest. Exactly why should GPS anger its own supporters and risk losing seats by working with radical Islamist PAS just to join a backdoor government when it is already part of a legitimate federal government?

 

Another hurdle, arguably the biggest, is the new King Sultan Ibrahim of Johor. His Majesty has said he will not entertain any requests from any party attempting to disrupt the political stability of the current unity government. Liberal and open-minded, Sultan Ibrahim would do everything in his power to prevent the country from falling into the hands of radicals such as extremist PAS.

 

Essentially, both GPS and Sultan Ibrahim had seen how the previous “overhyped” Malay-Muslim government created more damage than good to the country – having three prime ministers in 5 years and dividing the country dangerously along racial and religious lines. More importantly, UMNO realizes it has more to gain by working with Pakatan Harapan than Perikatan Nasional.

With Bersatu and PAS, UMNO is fishing in the same pond for the same Malay voters. All the three Malay political parties are cannibalizing each other for the same limited votes. As a junior partner, the seat allocation in Malay-majority constituencies for the next election will not favour UMNO as both PAS and Bersatu will definitely gobble the lion’s share. There is very little benefit with partners like Perikatan.

 

With Pakatan Harapan, however, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) can leverage on Chinese-led Democratic Action Party (DAP), who commands 95% of Chinese votes in the country, to win more seats in the 16th General Election. It would be “penny wise and pound foolish” for Zahid to jump ship now for a short-term gain, and loses more seats in the 16th General Election.

 

Already, UMNO were given the free hand to do as it likes in the unity government, so much so even crooked Najib Razak could be released from prison to serve his remaining jail sentence in the comfort of his mansion. Rather than becoming a backdoor premier for 3 years (or less), would it not be wise to become a legitimate premier for a full 5-year term?

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December 4th, 2024 by financetwitter

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