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Candies for Najib, Badawi’s tactical move to stay longer



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Jul 10 2008
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Strangely I couldn’t claim my RM625 rebate on the 1st July 2008 even though I’ve renewed my road-tax and insurance about two weeks before the expiry at the end of June. I was told that some processing need to be done before they can hand-over my money and it would take about four working days. Slightly panic I had no choice but to wait and finally I’ve gotten the money. I’ve spent it all though but on my mortgage although I was tempted to use it to pamper myself with the Apple’s new 3G iPhone which is scheduled to be on sale tomorrow. Guess the iPhone has to wait.

Another day another bombshell – Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi finally announced his retirement date – mid 2010, another two years away. I began to respect this so-called sleepy head because it appears he has all the quality of a master with all the ingenious strokes of political movement, just like the legendary chess player Kasparov. He might not have the braincells like Mahathir in managing the country’s economy and he might sleeps more hours than newborn babies but I bet he was actually planning his next political moves during his nap *grin*.

Badawi Najib over president seatCome on, if you think he would quietly handover the throne to his deputy Najib then you were born yesterday. Tons of things can happen within a span life of two years. Unlike his father Najib is known as an obedient boy. He was given the easy ride on a silver platter because of his father and in the process he is not a fighter but expects to be spoon-fed. If it’s not because former premier Mahathir owed his father a great favor, Najib would not be where he is today. But then he’s someone who cannot be trust as well. Everyone knows this and Badawi knew this but the recent political landscape has changed too much beyond recognition. With foreign investors getting out in droves, the situation doesn’t benefits the ruling government a bit.

Furthermore Badawi could have sensed that his deputy might just pull a rabbit from his hat to challenge him for the President seat. Badawi could have the financial muscle but this time around, money might not be able to solve UMNO’s internal problem. It would be super embarrassing for him to be booted and the only honourable exit route was to copy what Mahathir as done to him about five years ago. The plan was to offer some sweets to Najib with the hope to buy some time (for the next action) and his (Najib) temporary loyalty. Yes, this is an ingenious move because it would be suicidal for Najib to challenge his boss after Badawi promised to handover the President chair lest Najib fancy people call him ungrateful. But would Najib be able to see the shine and walk the corridors of powers ultimately?

Badawi handover to NajibIf you still believe Mahathir is not senile, then you gotta believe his prediction when he blogged that Najib will never become the next Prime Minister. Hey, with the Altantuya’s scandal still linked to Najib it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to conclude such prediction, not that Badawi would like the scandal to disappear overnight. Of course Badawi said he still needs two more years to deliver his promises to the people. Yeah right, if he cannot do anything for the last five years what makes you think he can performs the magic in a short period of two years? He might look dumb but definitely he would have written on his chest not to make the same mistake as Mahathir – handover the baton to the wrong person. Surely Najib would not give a love pat on Khairi’s shoulder and praise how gorgeous he was after Najib became the next Prime Minister, would he? What’s the best way to cripple your enemy if not to lure him into a cage and burn him alive? Who says it’s not possible to slaughter a tiger by pretending to be a pig-let? Badawi will stays longer than the planned two-years. It would be interesting to watch stock market’s reaction to such news tomorrow.

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Comments

Hi Stocktube,

I would like to invite your views on the following questions.

1. What do you forsee our global economic situation will be 1-2 years down the road? How long will the bear market last?
2. What are the type of investments should we (retailers) undertake during the full-blown recession period to generate/preserve wealth? e.g Property, mutual funds in certain sectors, Or we should keep our cash in the bank?

Thanks for your input. Your views will be posted at my blog which serves as my personal journal on investing.

Rgds,
Kris

Some people may have felt much hearthened if the news is announced a few months ago. But now many believe Najib has a role to play in Altantuya’s death, what would have been viewed as a positive development a few months ago had turned to negative, unless you are a diehard Najib supporters. If I were UMNO top leader I would have challenged Najib for the ultimate prize — the next prime minister because the allegation against Najib provides unique opportunity.

hello kris,

1) i wish i’ve the crystal ball because it would make me very rich indeed 🙂

anyway i believe nobody would bet his/her head as to how the global economic will fares in 1 year, let alone 2 years down the road … but it really depends on your investment style … if you’re someone like warren buffett, then it doesn’t matter, does it?

however i’m not too optimistic for the whole of 2008 and i sincerely hope nothing will happen to china because if it does burst this year, you can bet your last dollar on put-options or short-the-shares …

2) i hope by now retailers have reduce their stock holdings to only 30% … i’ve been blogging about how pessimism i was especially in the local stock market …

but then if you’re trading the U.S. stocks you shouldn’t worry so much because you can make money either way … gee! during fullblown recession almost all the sector would be affected and i hope you know what’s the difference between 1997 recession and this time around, IF there’s one around the corner …

yes, keep your cash because during recession, the idiot central bank would most probably increase the interest rate to double-digit … cash is king and when the stock reverse, you can pounce on it but that’s me … maybe you want to restrict your stock holding to dividend paying companies …

cheers …

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